Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Seoul's highest temperature on April 5, with KMA medium-range guidance showing nearby highs near 15°C amid mild early spring conditions, yet model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS diverge by 3-5°C due to variable cloud cover and wind patterns. Leading 12°C (23.5%) and 13°C (19.0%) odds stem from potential northerly winds advecting cooler Siberian air and overcast skies suppressing daytime heating, while 16°C or higher (17.0%) gains traction from possible southerly flows and clearer intervals aligned with warmer-than-average April trends (historical early-month highs ~14°C). Resolution uses Incheon International Airport observations; watch KMA daily updates April 3-4 for shifts as upper-air patterns evolve.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Seoul on April 5?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 5?
12°C 25%
13°C 19%
16°C or higher 19%
14°C 16%
$13,428 Vol.
$13,428 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
8%
9°C
5%
10°C
7%
11°C
13%
12°C
25%
13°C
19%
14°C
16%
15°C
8%
16°C or higher
19%
12°C 25%
13°C 19%
16°C or higher 19%
14°C 16%
$13,428 Vol.
$13,428 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
8%
9°C
5%
10°C
7%
11°C
13%
12°C
25%
13°C
19%
14°C
16%
15°C
8%
16°C or higher
19%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Seoul's highest temperature on April 5, with KMA medium-range guidance showing nearby highs near 15°C amid mild early spring conditions, yet model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS diverge by 3-5°C due to variable cloud cover and wind patterns. Leading 12°C (23.5%) and 13°C (19.0%) odds stem from potential northerly winds advecting cooler Siberian air and overcast skies suppressing daytime heating, while 16°C or higher (17.0%) gains traction from possible southerly flows and clearer intervals aligned with warmer-than-average April trends (historical early-month highs ~14°C). Resolution uses Incheon International Airport observations; watch KMA daily updates April 3-4 for shifts as upper-air patterns evolve.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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