Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 5 at Shuangliu International Airport, with major models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles projecting maxima around 27°C amid overcast skies limiting solar insolation. Recent updates from NOAA-aligned sites (timeanddate.com: 27°C high; Weather Underground: 27°C) and AccuWeather (28°C) explain the near-tie between 27°C (28.5% implied probability) and 26°C (27%), as persistent cloud cover—common in Chengdu's basin topography during spring monsoon transition—caps heating potential despite upstream warmth from April 3-4 highs near 27-28°C. Clearing or stronger subtropical ridge influence could tip toward 28°C; watch daily China Meteorological Administration advisories for resolution-defining observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 5?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 5?
27°C 30%
26°C 29%
28°C 16%
25°C 13%
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
5%
24°C
12%
25°C
13%
26°C
29%
27°C
30%
28°C
16%
29°C
7%
30°C or higher
3%
27°C 30%
26°C 29%
28°C 16%
25°C 13%
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
5%
24°C
12%
25°C
13%
26°C
29%
27°C
30%
28°C
16%
29°C
7%
30°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:21 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 5 at Shuangliu International Airport, with major models like GFS and ECMWF ensembles projecting maxima around 27°C amid overcast skies limiting solar insolation. Recent updates from NOAA-aligned sites (timeanddate.com: 27°C high; Weather Underground: 27°C) and AccuWeather (28°C) explain the near-tie between 27°C (28.5% implied probability) and 26°C (27%), as persistent cloud cover—common in Chengdu's basin topography during spring monsoon transition—caps heating potential despite upstream warmth from April 3-4 highs near 27-28°C. Clearing or stronger subtropical ridge influence could tip toward 28°C; watch daily China Meteorological Administration advisories for resolution-defining observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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