Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering of implied probabilities around 27-30°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 3, mirroring the 24-29°C spread in latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts under partly cloudy conditions with possible light showers. This stems from persistent late-March warmth—official Bao'an Airport readings hit 30.5°C on March 25 and 27°C on March 29, fueled by a strengthening subtropical ridge aloft and southerly moisture advection from the South China Sea. Key differentiators include cloud cover extent and sea breeze timing: clearer diurnal heating could push toward 30°C+, while increased overcast or showers caps at 24-26°C, consistent with early April climatological averages near 26°C. Daily model updates from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration will refine outlooks before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 3?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 3?
30°C or higher 30%
27°C 24%
25°C 18%
26°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
7%
23°C
8%
24°C
10%
25°C
18%
26°C
18%
27°C
24%
28°C
20%
29°C
14%
30°C or higher
30%
30°C or higher 30%
27°C 24%
25°C 18%
26°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
20°C or below
$238 Vol.
1%
21°C
$191 Vol.
1%
22°C
$40 Vol.
7%
23°C
$10 Vol.
8%
24°C
$10 Vol.
10%
25°C
$10 Vol.
18%
26°C
$10 Vol.
18%
27°C
$33 Vol.
24%
28°C
$19 Vol.
20%
29°C
$10 Vol.
14%
30°C or higher
$10 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering of implied probabilities around 27-30°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 3, mirroring the 24-29°C spread in latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts under partly cloudy conditions with possible light showers. This stems from persistent late-March warmth—official Bao'an Airport readings hit 30.5°C on March 25 and 27°C on March 29, fueled by a strengthening subtropical ridge aloft and southerly moisture advection from the South China Sea. Key differentiators include cloud cover extent and sea breeze timing: clearer diurnal heating could push toward 30°C+, while increased overcast or showers caps at 24-26°C, consistent with early April climatological averages near 26°C. Daily model updates from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration will refine outlooks before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$581Data de Término
Apr 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering of implied probabilities around 27-30°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 3, mirroring the 24-29°C spread in latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts under partly cloudy conditions with possible light showers. This stems from persistent late-March warmth—official Bao'an Airport readings hit 30.5°C on March 25 and 27°C on March 29, fueled by a strengthening subtropical ridge aloft and southerly moisture advection from the South China Sea. Key differentiators include cloud cover extent and sea breeze timing: clearer diurnal heating could push toward 30°C+, while increased overcast or showers caps at 24-26°C, consistent with early April climatological averages near 26°C. Daily model updates from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration will refine outlooks before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$581Data de Término
Apr 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering of implied probabilities around 27-30°C for Shenzhen's highest temperature on April 3, mirroring the 24-29°C spread in latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts under partly cloudy conditions with possible light showers. This stems from persistent late-March warmth—official Bao'an Airport readings hit 30.5°C on March 25 and 27°C on March 29, fueled by a strengthening subtropical ridge aloft and southerly moisture advection from the South China Sea. Key differentiators include cloud cover extent and sea breeze timing: clearer diurnal heating could push toward 30°C+, while increased overcast or showers caps at 24-26°C, consistent with early April climatological averages near 26°C. Daily model updates from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration will refine outlooks before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions