Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in early April weather patterns for Chongqing, with implied probabilities clustered tightly around 19–23°C highs, matching the climatological baseline of about 21°C at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport during this period. Recent severe convective activity across southern China has introduced cloudy conditions and potential cold fronts, tempering earlier-week warmth—such as April 4 forecasts near 27°C—and driving model ensembles toward moderated peaks. Key differentiators include forecast spread in cloud cover persistence, southerly wind influences on the Sichuan Basin, and precipitation timing, with GFS and ECMWF runs diverging by 2–4°C. China Meteorological Administration updates through April 6 will clarify trajectories ahead of resolution.