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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 30

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 30

19°C or below 31%

27°C 22%

29°C or higher 20%

28°C 20%

Polymarket
NEW

19°C or below 31%

27°C 22%

29°C or higher 20%

28°C 20%

Polymarket
NEW

19°C or below

$115 Vol.

31%

20°C

$136 Vol.

10%

21°C

$17 Vol.

12%

22°C

$11 Vol.

11%

23°C

$0 Vol.

16%

24°C

$0 Vol.

16%

25°C

$0 Vol.

15%

26°C

$0 Vol.

19%

27°C

$0 Vol.

22%

28°C

$0 Vol.

20%

29°C or higher

$0 Vol.

20%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated March 30, projects a high of 23–26°C on April 4 amid cloudy conditions, occasional showers, and thunderstorms driven by a trough of low pressure nearing Guangdong's coast during Ching Ming Festival, suppressing peak temperatures below seasonal norms of around 25°C. This explains trader consensus leaning toward 19°C or below at 34.5% implied probability, as persistent cloud cover and rain could further limit daytime heating, though southerly winds at force 4 support the mid-20s range favored in outcomes like 27°C (21.5%). High market uncertainty stems from divergent model runs on trough persistence and shower intensity; key variables include wind shifts to cooler northerlies or clearing skies. Watch HKO's daily updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution based on official maximum air temperature readings.

Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated March 30, projects a high of 23–26°C on April 4 amid cloudy conditions, occasional showers, and thunderstorms driven by a trough of low pressure nearing Guangdong's coast during Ching Ming Festival, suppressing peak temperatures below seasonal norms of around 25°C. This explains trader consensus leaning toward 19°C or below at 34.5% implied probability, as persistent cloud cover and rain could further limit daytime heating, though southerly winds at force 4 support the mid-20s range favored in outcomes like 27°C (21.5%). High market uncertainty stems from divergent model runs on trough persistence and shower intensity; key variables include wind shifts to cooler northerlies or clearing skies. Watch HKO's daily updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution based on official maximum air temperature readings.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated March 30, projects a high of 23–26°C on April 4 amid cloudy conditions, occasional showers, and thunderstorms driven by a trough of low pressure nearing Guangdong's coast during Ching Ming Festival, suppressing peak temperatures below seasonal norms of around 25°C. This explains trader consensus leaning toward 19°C or below at 34.5% implied probability, as persistent cloud cover and rain could further limit daytime heating, though southerly winds at force 4 support the mid-20s range favored in outcomes like 27°C (21.5%). High market uncertainty stems from divergent model runs on trough persistence and shower intensity; key variables include wind shifts to cooler northerlies or clearing skies. Watch HKO's daily updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution based on official maximum air temperature readings.

Hong Kong Observatory's latest 9-day forecast, updated March 30, projects a high of 23–26°C on April 4 amid cloudy conditions, occasional showers, and thunderstorms driven by a trough of low pressure nearing Guangdong's coast during Ching Ming Festival, suppressing peak temperatures below seasonal norms of around 25°C. This explains trader consensus leaning toward 19°C or below at 34.5% implied probability, as persistent cloud cover and rain could further limit daytime heating, though southerly winds at force 4 support the mid-20s range favored in outcomes like 27°C (21.5%). High market uncertainty stems from divergent model runs on trough persistence and shower intensity; key variables include wind shifts to cooler northerlies or clearing skies. Watch HKO's daily updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution based on official maximum air temperature readings.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "19°C or below" at 31%, followed by "27°C" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?" is "19°C or below" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "27°C" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.