Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Chengdu's highest temperature on April 4 within a 22-28°C spread, fueling closely matched market-implied probabilities near 20% for 23°C and 28°C amid high uncertainty typical of early spring transitions. Differentiating factors hinge on model disagreements over subtropical ridge persistence versus an approaching upper-level trough: sustained ridging would enable strong diurnal heating and clear skies for 27-29°C highs, while trough-induced cloudiness or convection could cap peaks at 22-23°C. Chengdu's basin topography favors rapid afternoon warming but risks stratus clouds suppressing insolation. Historical April 4 averages hover at 22°C, with variability driven by these synoptic patterns; watch daily China Meteorological Administration updates and new ensemble runs for shifts before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 4?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 4?
21°C or below 38%
23°C 22%
27°C 16%
29°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
21°C or below
38%
22°C
15%
23°C
22%
24°C
10%
25°C
12%
26°C
12%
27°C
16%
28°C
18%
29°C
15%
30°C
13%
31°C or higher
4%
21°C or below 38%
23°C 22%
27°C 16%
29°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
21°C or below
$10 Vol.
38%
22°C
$10 Vol.
15%
23°C
$10 Vol.
22%
24°C
$11 Vol.
10%
25°C
$10 Vol.
12%
26°C
$10 Vol.
12%
27°C
$10 Vol.
16%
28°C
$21 Vol.
18%
29°C
$30 Vol.
15%
30°C
$14 Vol.
13%
31°C or higher
$163 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Chengdu's highest temperature on April 4 within a 22-28°C spread, fueling closely matched market-implied probabilities near 20% for 23°C and 28°C amid high uncertainty typical of early spring transitions. Differentiating factors hinge on model disagreements over subtropical ridge persistence versus an approaching upper-level trough: sustained ridging would enable strong diurnal heating and clear skies for 27-29°C highs, while trough-induced cloudiness or convection could cap peaks at 22-23°C. Chengdu's basin topography favors rapid afternoon warming but risks stratus clouds suppressing insolation. Historical April 4 averages hover at 22°C, with variability driven by these synoptic patterns; watch daily China Meteorological Administration updates and new ensemble runs for shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Volume
$299Data de Término
Apr 4, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Chengdu's highest temperature on April 4 within a 22-28°C spread, fueling closely matched market-implied probabilities near 20% for 23°C and 28°C amid high uncertainty typical of early spring transitions. Differentiating factors hinge on model disagreements over subtropical ridge persistence versus an approaching upper-level trough: sustained ridging would enable strong diurnal heating and clear skies for 27-29°C highs, while trough-induced cloudiness or convection could cap peaks at 22-23°C. Chengdu's basin topography favors rapid afternoon warming but risks stratus clouds suppressing insolation. Historical April 4 averages hover at 22°C, with variability driven by these synoptic patterns; watch daily China Meteorological Administration updates and new ensemble runs for shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$299Data de Término
Apr 4, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts project Chengdu's highest temperature on April 4 within a 22-28°C spread, fueling closely matched market-implied probabilities near 20% for 23°C and 28°C amid high uncertainty typical of early spring transitions. Differentiating factors hinge on model disagreements over subtropical ridge persistence versus an approaching upper-level trough: sustained ridging would enable strong diurnal heating and clear skies for 27-29°C highs, while trough-induced cloudiness or convection could cap peaks at 22-23°C. Chengdu's basin topography favors rapid afternoon warming but risks stratus clouds suppressing insolation. Historical April 4 averages hover at 22°C, with variability driven by these synoptic patterns; watch daily China Meteorological Administration updates and new ensemble runs for shifts before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions