Trader sentiment on Chengdu's highest temperature April 3 reflects genuine forecast uncertainty, with global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting 23-26°C under partly sunny to overcast skies, driving clustered implied probabilities around 26°C (28%) and 30°C or higher (29%). Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover from lingering frontal systems in the Sichuan Basin, which traps moisture and fosters temperature inversions capping daytime heating, versus scenarios with clearing skies boosting solar insolation toward 28-30°C amid recent March warmth exceeding seasonal norms (highs near 25°C). Historical early-April averages hover at 21°C, but basin dynamics amplify variability; watch China Meteorological Administration updates and new model runs through April 1 for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 3?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 3?
26°C 28%
22°C 24%
27°C 23%
28°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
20°C or below
3%
21°C
10%
22°C
24%
23°C
17%
24°C
18%
25°C
20%
26°C
28%
27°C
23%
28°C
23%
29°C
16%
30°C or higher
27%
26°C 28%
22°C 24%
27°C 23%
28°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
20°C or below
$41 Vol.
3%
21°C
$6 Vol.
10%
22°C
$6 Vol.
24%
23°C
$6 Vol.
17%
24°C
$6 Vol.
18%
25°C
$6 Vol.
20%
26°C
$6 Vol.
28%
27°C
$6 Vol.
23%
28°C
$6 Vol.
23%
29°C
$6 Vol.
16%
30°C or higher
$61 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on Chengdu's highest temperature April 3 reflects genuine forecast uncertainty, with global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting 23-26°C under partly sunny to overcast skies, driving clustered implied probabilities around 26°C (28%) and 30°C or higher (29%). Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover from lingering frontal systems in the Sichuan Basin, which traps moisture and fosters temperature inversions capping daytime heating, versus scenarios with clearing skies boosting solar insolation toward 28-30°C amid recent March warmth exceeding seasonal norms (highs near 25°C). Historical early-April averages hover at 21°C, but basin dynamics amplify variability; watch China Meteorological Administration updates and new model runs through April 1 for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 4:13 PM ET
Volume
$157Data de Término
Apr 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on Chengdu's highest temperature April 3 reflects genuine forecast uncertainty, with global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting 23-26°C under partly sunny to overcast skies, driving clustered implied probabilities around 26°C (28%) and 30°C or higher (29%). Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover from lingering frontal systems in the Sichuan Basin, which traps moisture and fosters temperature inversions capping daytime heating, versus scenarios with clearing skies boosting solar insolation toward 28-30°C amid recent March warmth exceeding seasonal norms (highs near 25°C). Historical early-April averages hover at 21°C, but basin dynamics amplify variability; watch China Meteorological Administration updates and new model runs through April 1 for shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$157Data de Término
Apr 3, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Chengdu's highest temperature April 3 reflects genuine forecast uncertainty, with global models like ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting 23-26°C under partly sunny to overcast skies, driving clustered implied probabilities around 26°C (28%) and 30°C or higher (29%). Differentiating factors include potential cloud cover from lingering frontal systems in the Sichuan Basin, which traps moisture and fosters temperature inversions capping daytime heating, versus scenarios with clearing skies boosting solar insolation toward 28-30°C amid recent March warmth exceeding seasonal norms (highs near 25°C). Historical early-April averages hover at 21°C, but basin dynamics amplify variability; watch China Meteorological Administration updates and new model runs through April 1 for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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