Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models indicate Chicago O'Hare's high temperature on April 5 will likely peak in the low to mid-50s°F, fueling closely matched trader consensus at 24% implied probability for 50-51°F and 22% for 52-53°F. This positioning stems from model spread over boundary layer conditions, potential lingering cloud cover from recent Midwest showers, and subtle timing of weak upper-level shortwaves amid a neutral ENSO phase. Climatological normals hover near 55°F for early April, tempered by 2026 spring outlooks projecting near-average warmth with fewer extremes. Key differentiators include diurnal heating potential and wind mixing; watch for afternoon NWS updates and evening 00Z model runs that could sharpen the peak temperature outlook before resolution on official NOAA O'Hare observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on April 5?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 5?
50-51°F 27%
52-53°F 23%
54-55°F 15%
48-49°F 13%
$16,576 Vol.
$16,576 Vol.
37°F or below
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
1%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
6%
46-47°F
6%
48-49°F
13%
50-51°F
27%
52-53°F
23%
54-55°F
15%
56°F or higher
13%
50-51°F 27%
52-53°F 23%
54-55°F 15%
48-49°F 13%
$16,576 Vol.
$16,576 Vol.
37°F or below
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
1%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
6%
46-47°F
6%
48-49°F
13%
50-51°F
27%
52-53°F
23%
54-55°F
15%
56°F or higher
13%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models indicate Chicago O'Hare's high temperature on April 5 will likely peak in the low to mid-50s°F, fueling closely matched trader consensus at 24% implied probability for 50-51°F and 22% for 52-53°F. This positioning stems from model spread over boundary layer conditions, potential lingering cloud cover from recent Midwest showers, and subtle timing of weak upper-level shortwaves amid a neutral ENSO phase. Climatological normals hover near 55°F for early April, tempered by 2026 spring outlooks projecting near-average warmth with fewer extremes. Key differentiators include diurnal heating potential and wind mixing; watch for afternoon NWS updates and evening 00Z model runs that could sharpen the peak temperature outlook before resolution on official NOAA O'Hare observations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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