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Highest temperature in Munich on April 3?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Munich on April 3?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

15°C or higher 28%

12°C 24%

11°C 22%

14°C 22%

Polymarket
NEW

15°C or higher 28%

12°C 24%

11°C 22%

14°C 22%

Polymarket
NEW

5°C or below

$146 Vol.

1%

6°C

$135 Vol.

1%

7°C

$16 Vol.

7%

8°C

$0 Vol.

9%

9°C

$0 Vol.

10%

10°C

$0 Vol.

19%

11°C

$0 Vol.

22%

12°C

$0 Vol.

24%

13°C

$1 Vol.

20%

14°C

$0 Vol.

22%

15°C or higher

$0 Vol.

28%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS), as tracked by the German Weather Service (DWD), show a clustered mean high temperature around 13°C for Munich on April 3, but with notable spread across members—ranging 10–16°C—driving the tight market-implied odds between 11°C and 15°C or higher. This uncertainty stems from variable upper-level steering patterns over Central Europe, including potential mild southerly airflow versus cooler northerly intrusions amid transitional spring conditions. No major developments in the past 48 hours have shifted consensus; historical early-April averages hover near 12°C with standard deviations of 3–4°C. Traders await daily 00Z model updates and DWD bulletins for resolution-defining clarity at official Munich stations.

Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS), as tracked by the German Weather Service (DWD), show a clustered mean high temperature around 13°C for Munich on April 3, but with notable spread across members—ranging 10–16°C—driving the tight market-implied odds between 11°C and 15°C or higher. This uncertainty stems from variable upper-level steering patterns over Central Europe, including potential mild southerly airflow versus cooler northerly intrusions amid transitional spring conditions. No major developments in the past 48 hours have shifted consensus; historical early-April averages hover near 12°C with standard deviations of 3–4°C. Traders await daily 00Z model updates and DWD bulletins for resolution-defining clarity at official Munich stations.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS), as tracked by the German Weather Service (DWD), show a clustered mean high temperature around 13°C for Munich on April 3, but with notable spread across members—ranging 10–16°C—driving the tight market-implied odds between 11°C and 15°C or higher. This uncertainty stems from variable upper-level steering patterns over Central Europe, including potential mild southerly airflow versus cooler northerly intrusions amid transitional spring conditions. No major developments in the past 48 hours have shifted consensus; historical early-April averages hover near 12°C with standard deviations of 3–4°C. Traders await daily 00Z model updates and DWD bulletins for resolution-defining clarity at official Munich stations.

Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS), as tracked by the German Weather Service (DWD), show a clustered mean high temperature around 13°C for Munich on April 3, but with notable spread across members—ranging 10–16°C—driving the tight market-implied odds between 11°C and 15°C or higher. This uncertainty stems from variable upper-level steering patterns over Central Europe, including potential mild southerly airflow versus cooler northerly intrusions amid transitional spring conditions. No major developments in the past 48 hours have shifted consensus; historical early-April averages hover near 12°C with standard deviations of 3–4°C. Traders await daily 00Z model updates and DWD bulletins for resolution-defining clarity at official Munich stations.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Munich on April 3?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "15°C or higher" at 28%, followed by "12°C" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Munich on April 3?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Munich on April 3?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Munich on April 3?" is "15°C or higher" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "12°C" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Munich on April 3?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.