Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a maximum temperature of 28°C or below in Lucknow on March 21 (72.5% implied probability), propelled by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts pinpointing a high of 26-28°C under the influence of an active western disturbance. This extratropical weather system has ushered cooler northerly winds, increased cloud cover, and light showers across Uttar Pradesh, capping daytime highs well below the March climatological average of 32°C. Recent surface observations confirm a 4-6°C deficit over the past week, with GFS and ECMWF model ensembles converging on sustained cool conditions through the date, diminishing odds for 29°C or higher amid low diurnal heating potential.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 21?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 21?
28°C or below 73%
29°C 10%
33°C 5%
30°C 4%
28°C or below
73%
29°C
13%
30°C
10%
31°C
11%
32°C
10%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C
2%
36°C
2%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
2%
28°C or below 73%
29°C 10%
33°C 5%
30°C 4%
28°C or below
73%
29°C
13%
30°C
10%
31°C
11%
32°C
10%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C
2%
36°C
2%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a maximum temperature of 28°C or below in Lucknow on March 21 (72.5% implied probability), propelled by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts pinpointing a high of 26-28°C under the influence of an active western disturbance. This extratropical weather system has ushered cooler northerly winds, increased cloud cover, and light showers across Uttar Pradesh, capping daytime highs well below the March climatological average of 32°C. Recent surface observations confirm a 4-6°C deficit over the past week, with GFS and ECMWF model ensembles converging on sustained cool conditions through the date, diminishing odds for 29°C or higher amid low diurnal heating potential.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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