Traders' near-unanimous consensus on 32°C or below for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 20 stems from aligned meteorological forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and global models like GFS, projecting a daytime max of 31-32°C under clear skies and dry northerly winds. This aligns with mid-March climatology, where historical averages hover around 32°C amid retreating winter patterns, with no heatwave precursors like high-pressure blocking evident in upper-air analyses. Scenarios challenging this include an unforeseen surge in southerly moisture advection or a model bust from microscale urban heating at the official measurement site, though ensemble probabilities assign under 3% odds to exceeding 33°C.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 20?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 20?
32°C ou menos 97.5%
33°C 1.4%
35°C <1%
34°C <1%
$83,225 Vol.
$83,225 Vol.
32°C ou menos
98%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
32°C ou menos 97.5%
33°C 1.4%
35°C <1%
34°C <1%
$83,225 Vol.
$83,225 Vol.
32°C ou menos
98%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders' near-unanimous consensus on 32°C or below for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 20 stems from aligned meteorological forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and global models like GFS, projecting a daytime max of 31-32°C under clear skies and dry northerly winds. This aligns with mid-March climatology, where historical averages hover around 32°C amid retreating winter patterns, with no heatwave precursors like high-pressure blocking evident in upper-air analyses. Scenarios challenging this include an unforeseen surge in southerly moisture advection or a model bust from microscale urban heating at the official measurement site, though ensemble probabilities assign under 3% odds to exceeding 33°C.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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