Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 21°C as Chengdu's highest temperature on March 21, driven by high-confidence forecasts from China's Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on daytime highs of 20-21°C amid mild spring conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover. Historical March data supports this, with Chengdu's average maxima around 18-20°C, and current synoptic patterns—featuring a stable high-pressure ridge—reinforcing model outputs showing minimal deviation. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen southerly warm surge or localized urban heat island amplification pushing toward 22°C, though such outliers occur in under 5% of similar setups per climatological records.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 21?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 21?
21°C 99.6%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C or higher <1%
$43,366 Vol.
$43,366 Vol.
21°C
100%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
21°C 99.6%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C or higher <1%
$43,366 Vol.
$43,366 Vol.
21°C
100%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 21°C as Chengdu's highest temperature on March 21, driven by high-confidence forecasts from China's Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which converge on daytime highs of 20-21°C amid mild spring conditions with light winds and partial cloud cover. Historical March data supports this, with Chengdu's average maxima around 18-20°C, and current synoptic patterns—featuring a stable high-pressure ridge—reinforcing model outputs showing minimal deviation. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen southerly warm surge or localized urban heat island amplification pushing toward 22°C, though such outliers occur in under 5% of similar setups per climatological records.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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