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Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?

Mar 30

Mar 31

Apr 1

Apr 2

Mar 30

Mar 31

Apr 1

Apr 2

17°C or higher 39%

14°C 23%

15°C 22%

13°C 20%

Polymarket
NEW

17°C or higher 39%

14°C 23%

15°C 22%

13°C 20%

Polymarket
NEW

7°C or below

$210 Vol.

1%

8°C

$0 Vol.

11%

9°C

$0 Vol.

12%

10°C

$0 Vol.

13%

11°C

$0 Vol.

9%

12°C

$0 Vol.

17%

13°C

$0 Vol.

20%

14°C

$9 Vol.

23%

15°C

$0 Vol.

22%

16°C

$0 Vol.

19%

17°C or higher

$0 Vol.

39%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 3 at around 16°C, positioning the 17°C or higher outcome at 41.5% market-implied probability amid a spring warming trend following a cool, rainy late March with highs near 12°C. Historical early April averages hover at 14-16°C, influenced by Marmara Sea moderation and southerly flows displacing recent northerly cold air, though patchy rain risks could cap peaks at 15°C (23%) or 16°C (19%). Trader sentiment reflects this consensus spread, with lower odds for sub-13°C outcomes due to absent cold front signals; watch Turkish State Meteorological Service and daily model updates for refinements before resolution.

Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 3 at around 16°C, positioning the 17°C or higher outcome at 41.5% market-implied probability amid a spring warming trend following a cool, rainy late March with highs near 12°C. Historical early April averages hover at 14-16°C, influenced by Marmara Sea moderation and southerly flows displacing recent northerly cold air, though patchy rain risks could cap peaks at 15°C (23%) or 16°C (19%). Trader sentiment reflects this consensus spread, with lower odds for sub-13°C outcomes due to absent cold front signals; watch Turkish State Meteorological Service and daily model updates for refinements before resolution.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 3 at around 16°C, positioning the 17°C or higher outcome at 41.5% market-implied probability amid a spring warming trend following a cool, rainy late March with highs near 12°C. Historical early April averages hover at 14-16°C, influenced by Marmara Sea moderation and southerly flows displacing recent northerly cold air, though patchy rain risks could cap peaks at 15°C (23%) or 16°C (19%). Trader sentiment reflects this consensus spread, with lower odds for sub-13°C outcomes due to absent cold front signals; watch Turkish State Meteorological Service and daily model updates for refinements before resolution.

Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models project Istanbul's highest temperature on April 3 at around 16°C, positioning the 17°C or higher outcome at 41.5% market-implied probability amid a spring warming trend following a cool, rainy late March with highs near 12°C. Historical early April averages hover at 14-16°C, influenced by Marmara Sea moderation and southerly flows displacing recent northerly cold air, though patchy rain risks could cap peaks at 15°C (23%) or 16°C (19%). Trader sentiment reflects this consensus spread, with lower odds for sub-13°C outcomes due to absent cold front signals; watch Turkish State Meteorological Service and daily model updates for refinements before resolution.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "17°C or higher" at 39%, followed by "14°C" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?" is "17°C or higher" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "14°C" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.