Preliminary data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center shows over 160 confirmed tornadoes across multiple severe weather outbreaks in March 2026, including significant events from March 5–7, 10–11, and 15–16, driving the market's 98% implied probability for 150+. Favorable atmospheric conditions—strong wind shear, high instability, and a dynamic jet stream—fueled these storms, exceeding the climatological March average of about 80 tornadoes and aligning with recent active years where three of the last four Marches topped 200. Traders' strong consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of reliable preliminary surveys via radar, damage assessments, and eyewitness reports. Downward revisions could occur if final National Centers for Environmental Information tallies merge duplicate reports or reclassify some as non-tornadic, but such adjustments rarely drop counts below current thresholds; watch for the official monthly summary in coming weeks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQuantos Tornados nos EUA em março?
Quantos Tornados nos EUA em março?
150+ 98.2%
130–149 1.0%
100–129 <1%
<70 <1%
$191,910 Vol.
$191,910 Vol.
10 abr 2026
<70
<1%
70–99
<1%
100–129
<1%
130–149
1%
150+
98%
150+ 98.2%
130–149 1.0%
100–129 <1%
<70 <1%
$191,910 Vol.
$191,910 Vol.
10 abr 2026
<70
$27,950 Vol.
<1%
70–99
$23,939 Vol.
<1%
100–129
$46,400 Vol.
<1%
130–149
$38,831 Vol.
1%
150+
$54,790 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center shows over 160 confirmed tornadoes across multiple severe weather outbreaks in March 2026, including significant events from March 5–7, 10–11, and 15–16, driving the market's 98% implied probability for 150+. Favorable atmospheric conditions—strong wind shear, high instability, and a dynamic jet stream—fueled these storms, exceeding the climatological March average of about 80 tornadoes and aligning with recent active years where three of the last four Marches topped 200. Traders' strong consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of reliable preliminary surveys via radar, damage assessments, and eyewitness reports. Downward revisions could occur if final National Centers for Environmental Information tallies merge duplicate reports or reclassify some as non-tornadic, but such adjustments rarely drop counts below current thresholds; watch for the official monthly summary in coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$191,910Data de Término
10 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center shows over 160 confirmed tornadoes across multiple severe weather outbreaks in March 2026, including significant events from March 5–7, 10–11, and 15–16, driving the market's 98% implied probability for 150+. Favorable atmospheric conditions—strong wind shear, high instability, and a dynamic jet stream—fueled these storms, exceeding the climatological March average of about 80 tornadoes and aligning with recent active years where three of the last four Marches topped 200. Traders' strong consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of reliable preliminary surveys via radar, damage assessments, and eyewitness reports. Downward revisions could occur if final National Centers for Environmental Information tallies merge duplicate reports or reclassify some as non-tornadic, but such adjustments rarely drop counts below current thresholds; watch for the official monthly summary in coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$191,910Data de Término
10 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary data from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center shows over 160 confirmed tornadoes across multiple severe weather outbreaks in March 2026, including significant events from March 5–7, 10–11, and 15–16, driving the market's 98% implied probability for 150+. Favorable atmospheric conditions—strong wind shear, high instability, and a dynamic jet stream—fueled these storms, exceeding the climatological March average of about 80 tornadoes and aligning with recent active years where three of the last four Marches topped 200. Traders' strong consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of reliable preliminary surveys via radar, damage assessments, and eyewitness reports. Downward revisions could occur if final National Centers for Environmental Information tallies merge duplicate reports or reclassify some as non-tornadic, but such adjustments rarely drop counts below current thresholds; watch for the official monthly summary in coming weeks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions