Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?

Name: Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?
Start: 2026-03-29T20:53:41.879Z
End: 2026-04-04T12:00:00.000Z

Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Apr 3

27°C or higher 23%

17°C or below 21%

23°C 19%

18°C 16%

NEW

Apr 4, 2026

17°C or below

$111 Vol.

21%

18°C

$0 Vol.

16%

19°C

$0 Vol.

15%

20°C

$0 Vol.

15%

21°C

$0 Vol.

12%

22°C

$0 Vol.

13%

23°C

$0 Vol.

19%

24°C

$0 Vol.

14%

25°C

$0 Vol.

16%

26°C

$0 Vol.

14%

27°C or higher

$5 Vol.

23%

27°C or higher 23%

17°C or below 21%

23°C 19%

18°C 16%

NEW

Apr 4, 2026

17°C or below

$111 Vol.

21%

18°C

$0 Vol.

16%

19°C

$0 Vol.

15%

20°C

$0 Vol.

15%

21°C

$0 Vol.

12%

22°C

$0 Vol.

13%

23°C

$0 Vol.

19%

24°C

$0 Vol.

14%

25°C

$0 Vol.

16%

26°C

$0 Vol.

14%

27°C or higher

$5 Vol.

23%

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty in five-day forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities spread across outcomes due to ensemble spreads in ECMWF and GFS models showing potential highs from 17°C to 27°C+. AEMET's latest outlook for the early April Holy Week period highlights fluctuating temperatures and high predictive uncertainty, driven by variable upper-air patterns that could steer a warm Azores High ridge southward for advection of subtropical air—favoring 24–27°C+—or allow Atlantic fronts to bring cooler, cloudy conditions below 20°C. Climatological April 4 averages hover near 18°C per historical AEMET data, but spring transitional dynamics amplify day-to-day variability. Watch daily model updates from AEMET and ECMWF for resolution shifts ahead of the event.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado Mar 30, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "27°C or higher" at 23%, followed by "17°C or below" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?" is "27°C or higher" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "17°C or below" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 23¢ for "27°C or higher" in the "Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 23% chance that "27°C or higher" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 23¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 77¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Apr 4, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?" market has an active community of 19 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?

Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?

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Contexto de Mercado

Regras

Contexto de Mercado

Comentários (19)

Top Holders

Cargos

Actividade

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