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A Missão Lunar Doge-1 será lançada antes de 2027?

Market icon

A Missão Lunar Doge-1 será lançada antes de 2027?

Sim

5% acaso
Polymarket

$706,973 Vol.

Sim

5% acaso
Polymarket

$706,973 Vol.

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95% implied probability for "No" on the Doge-1 CubeSat mission launching before 2027, driven by the absence of a confirmed SpaceX Falcon 9 rideshare slot despite Geometric Energy Corporation's tentative September 13, 2026 target. Announced in 2021 and repeatedly delayed—from Intuitive Machines' IM-1 failure in 2024 to ongoing payload integration—the mission lacks public manifestation on SpaceX's packed 2026 schedule, prioritizing Starlink and crewed flights. Elon Musk's February 2026 comment of "maybe next year" further eroded confidence. Realistic shifts could occur with a firm launch booking or payload shipment announcement in coming months, ahead of quarterly SpaceX manifests.

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Volume
$706,973
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95% implied probability for "No" on the Doge-1 CubeSat mission launching before 2027, driven by the absence of a confirmed SpaceX Falcon 9 rideshare slot despite Geometric Energy Corporation's tentative September 13, 2026 target. Announced in 2021 and repeatedly delayed—from Intuitive Machines' IM-1 failure in 2024 to ongoing payload integration—the mission lacks public manifestation on SpaceX's packed 2026 schedule, prioritizing Starlink and crewed flights. Elon Musk's February 2026 comment of "maybe next year" further eroded confidence. Realistic shifts could occur with a firm launch booking or payload shipment announcement in coming months, ahead of quarterly SpaceX manifests.

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Volume
$706,973
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"A Missão Lunar Doge-1 será lançada antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "A missão lunar Doge-1 será lançada antes de 2027?" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 5% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "A Missão Lunar Doge-1 será lançada antes de 2027?" has generated $707K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "A Missão Lunar Doge-1 será lançada antes de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "A Missão Lunar Doge-1 será lançada antes de 2027?" is "A missão lunar Doge-1 será lançada antes de 2027?" at just 5%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "A Missão Lunar Doge-1 será lançada antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.