Sustained Falcon 9 operations at a record cadence, with roughly 67–68 orbital launches completed by early June 2026, position the 140–159 range as the leading market outcome at 52.4% implied probability. This pace, driven primarily by frequent Starlink deployments from Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, aligns with company targets near 150 missions while Starship remains in testing with limited contributions so far. Recent approvals for higher Vandenberg cadence and ongoing booster reuse support continued reliability, though model consensus and regulatory windows introduce uncertainty around exceeding 160. New data releases on Starship flight tests and FAA launch schedules through summer could shift probabilities toward the 160–179 band.