Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the resolution criteria—Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per National Hurricane Center Saffir-Simpson scale, 10-kiloton-plus meteor airburst via NASA CNEOS data, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6+ eruption from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake on USGS moment magnitude scale—and zero occurrences through early April. Neutral ENSO conditions forecast by NOAA signal average Atlantic activity with 11-16 named storms but limited rapid intensification risk for Cat 5 systems. Seismic and volcanic monitoring shows baseline global rates, with no elevated precursors; meteor surveillance detects no threats. Key watch: NOAA's May hurricane outlook and ongoing USGS bulletins, as tail risks persist amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoDesastre natural em 2026?
Desastre natural em 2026?
Sim
$191,229 Vol.
$191,229 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$191,229 Vol.
$191,229 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the resolution criteria—Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per National Hurricane Center Saffir-Simpson scale, 10-kiloton-plus meteor airburst via NASA CNEOS data, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6+ eruption from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake on USGS moment magnitude scale—and zero occurrences through early April. Neutral ENSO conditions forecast by NOAA signal average Atlantic activity with 11-16 named storms but limited rapid intensification risk for Cat 5 systems. Seismic and volcanic monitoring shows baseline global rates, with no elevated precursors; meteor surveillance detects no threats. Key watch: NOAA's May hurricane outlook and ongoing USGS bulletins, as tail risks persist amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$191,229Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the resolution criteria—Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per National Hurricane Center Saffir-Simpson scale, 10-kiloton-plus meteor airburst via NASA CNEOS data, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6+ eruption from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake on USGS moment magnitude scale—and zero occurrences through early April. Neutral ENSO conditions forecast by NOAA signal average Atlantic activity with 11-16 named storms but limited rapid intensification risk for Cat 5 systems. Seismic and volcanic monitoring shows baseline global rates, with no elevated precursors; meteor surveillance detects no threats. Key watch: NOAA's May hurricane outlook and ongoing USGS bulletins, as tail risks persist amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$191,229Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the resolution criteria—Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per National Hurricane Center Saffir-Simpson scale, 10-kiloton-plus meteor airburst via NASA CNEOS data, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6+ eruption from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake on USGS moment magnitude scale—and zero occurrences through early April. Neutral ENSO conditions forecast by NOAA signal average Atlantic activity with 11-16 named storms but limited rapid intensification risk for Cat 5 systems. Seismic and volcanic monitoring shows baseline global rates, with no elevated precursors; meteor surveillance detects no threats. Key watch: NOAA's May hurricane outlook and ongoing USGS bulletins, as tail risks persist amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions