Trader consensus favoring “No” at 72.5% reflects the statistical rarity of qualifying extremes defined by official thresholds: a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI-6+ volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10-kiloton meteor strike. Through late May 2026, global seismic networks, the National Hurricane Center, and Smithsonian volcano monitoring report no events meeting these criteria, consistent with long-term baselines showing such occurrences only once per century or longer. Ongoing surveillance shows typical background activity levels, with no model shifts or new observations indicating elevated risk ahead of the Atlantic hurricane season peak or continued tectonic monitoring.