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Clima E Ciência·SpaceX

Quantos lançamentos de naves espaciais da SpaceX chegarão ao espaço em 2026?

Market icon
Clima E Ciência·SpaceX

Quantos lançamentos de naves espaciais da SpaceX chegarão ao espaço em 2026?

dez 31

dez 31

<5 60%

5-6 29%

9-10 9.8%

7-8 8%

Polymarket

$402,905 Vol.

<5 60%

5-6 29%

9-10 9.8%

7-8 8%

Polymarket

$402,905 Vol.

<5

$75,807 Vol.

65%

5-6

$82,858 Vol.

22%

7-8

$150,867 Vol.

8%

9-10

$54,940 Vol.

10%

11-12

$2,947 Vol.

5%

13-14

$3,647 Vol.

2%

15-16

$23,563 Vol.

1%

>16

$8,275 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026 at 64.5% implied probability, driven by persistent delays in the vehicle's development cadence despite recent FAA approvals for up to 44 annual launches from Kennedy Space Center's LC-39A and new overland trajectories greenlit in January-February. With zero flights achieved in Q1 2026—Flight 11 last occurring in October 2025—and Starship Flight 12's V3 prototype debut slipping from March targets to early April amid hardware testing and pad upgrades at Starbase, traders cite execution risks around reusability milestones like tower catches and propellant transfer demos. Historical precedent of just five flights in 2025 underscores scaling challenges for the fully reusable super heavy-lift system, though success could unlock higher cadences later in the year.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$402,905
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026 at 64.5% implied probability, driven by persistent delays in the vehicle's development cadence despite recent FAA approvals for up to 44 annual launches from Kennedy Space Center's LC-39A and new overland trajectories greenlit in January-February. With zero flights achieved in Q1 2026—Flight 11 last occurring in October 2025—and Starship Flight 12's V3 prototype debut slipping from March targets to early April amid hardware testing and pad upgrades at Starbase, traders cite execution risks around reusability milestones like tower catches and propellant transfer demos. Historical precedent of just five flights in 2025 underscores scaling challenges for the fully reusable super heavy-lift system, though success could unlock higher cadences later in the year.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$402,905
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quantos lançamentos de naves espaciais da SpaceX chegarão ao espaço em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<5" at 65%, followed by "5-6" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quantos lançamentos de naves espaciais da SpaceX chegarão ao espaço em 2026?" has generated $402.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quantos lançamentos de naves espaciais da SpaceX chegarão ao espaço em 2026?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quantos lançamentos de naves espaciais da SpaceX chegarão ao espaço em 2026?" is "<5" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5-6" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quantos lançamentos de naves espaciais da SpaceX chegarão ao espaço em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.