SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC, reported April 1, has propelled the market-implied probability of a June IPO to 62%, reflecting trader consensus on an 8–12 week regulatory review timeline aligning with a mid-2026 listing at a targeted $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise. Bolstered by Starlink's robust revenue growth—$15 billion annualized—and the February xAI merger enhancing orbital AI compute prospects, sentiment favors June amid favorable market conditions for mega-IPOs. July at 19.4% accounts for potential SEC delays, while "No IPO before 2027" odds below 7% signal strong momentum; traders eye the public prospectus expected late May as the next catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoJunho 60%
Julho 18.5%
Agosto 8.8%
Setembro 8.1%
$163,255 Vol.
$163,255 Vol.
Abril
1%
Maio
2%
Junho
60%
Julho
16%
Agosto
9%
Setembro
8%
Outubro
1%
Novembro
1%
Dezembro
1%
Sem IPO antes de 2027
7%
Junho 60%
Julho 18.5%
Agosto 8.8%
Setembro 8.1%
$163,255 Vol.
$163,255 Vol.
Abril
1%
Maio
2%
Junho
60%
Julho
16%
Agosto
9%
Setembro
8%
Outubro
1%
Novembro
1%
Dezembro
1%
Sem IPO antes de 2027
7%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 9, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC, reported April 1, has propelled the market-implied probability of a June IPO to 62%, reflecting trader consensus on an 8–12 week regulatory review timeline aligning with a mid-2026 listing at a targeted $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise. Bolstered by Starlink's robust revenue growth—$15 billion annualized—and the February xAI merger enhancing orbital AI compute prospects, sentiment favors June amid favorable market conditions for mega-IPOs. July at 19.4% accounts for potential SEC delays, while "No IPO before 2027" odds below 7% signal strong momentum; traders eye the public prospectus expected late May as the next catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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