The market-implied 89.5% probability for no major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026 stems from the extreme rarity of such Plinian-scale events, with none recorded globally since Mount Pinatubo's VEI-6 blast in 1991, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records—yielding a historical frequency of roughly one every 30–50 years. USGS volcano observatories and international monitoring report 41 continuing eruptions as of March 31, 2026, but all at VEI ≤4, featuring routine lava flows or ash plumes without precursors like accelerated seismicity, significant ground deformation, or gas emissions signaling magma buildup for explosive escalation. No unrest at high-risk sites such as Yellowstone or Shishaldin has intensified in recent weeks, reinforcing trader consensus on baseline low odds; ongoing daily seismic and satellite data from USGS will flag any shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoGrande erupção vulcânica (vei ≥6) em 2026?
Grande erupção vulcânica (vei ≥6) em 2026?
Sim
$38,024 Vol.
$38,024 Vol.
31 mar 2027
Sim
$38,024 Vol.
$38,024 Vol.
31 mar 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The market-implied 89.5% probability for no major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026 stems from the extreme rarity of such Plinian-scale events, with none recorded globally since Mount Pinatubo's VEI-6 blast in 1991, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records—yielding a historical frequency of roughly one every 30–50 years. USGS volcano observatories and international monitoring report 41 continuing eruptions as of March 31, 2026, but all at VEI ≤4, featuring routine lava flows or ash plumes without precursors like accelerated seismicity, significant ground deformation, or gas emissions signaling magma buildup for explosive escalation. No unrest at high-risk sites such as Yellowstone or Shishaldin has intensified in recent weeks, reinforcing trader consensus on baseline low odds; ongoing daily seismic and satellite data from USGS will flag any shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$38,024Data de Término
31 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The market-implied 89.5% probability for no major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026 stems from the extreme rarity of such Plinian-scale events, with none recorded globally since Mount Pinatubo's VEI-6 blast in 1991, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records—yielding a historical frequency of roughly one every 30–50 years. USGS volcano observatories and international monitoring report 41 continuing eruptions as of March 31, 2026, but all at VEI ≤4, featuring routine lava flows or ash plumes without precursors like accelerated seismicity, significant ground deformation, or gas emissions signaling magma buildup for explosive escalation. No unrest at high-risk sites such as Yellowstone or Shishaldin has intensified in recent weeks, reinforcing trader consensus on baseline low odds; ongoing daily seismic and satellite data from USGS will flag any shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$38,024Data de Término
31 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market-implied 89.5% probability for no major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026 stems from the extreme rarity of such Plinian-scale events, with none recorded globally since Mount Pinatubo's VEI-6 blast in 1991, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records—yielding a historical frequency of roughly one every 30–50 years. USGS volcano observatories and international monitoring report 41 continuing eruptions as of March 31, 2026, but all at VEI ≤4, featuring routine lava flows or ash plumes without precursors like accelerated seismicity, significant ground deformation, or gas emissions signaling magma buildup for explosive escalation. No unrest at high-risk sites such as Yellowstone or Shishaldin has intensified in recent weeks, reinforcing trader consensus on baseline low odds; ongoing daily seismic and satellite data from USGS will flag any shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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