Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no major volcanic eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥6) occurring in 2026, justified by the extreme rarity of such colossal events—last seen with Mount Pinatubo's VEI 6 in 1991 ejecting over 10 cubic kilometers of dense rock equivalent—and the absence of precursors in current global monitoring. As of April 2, 2026, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data logs 47 eruptions this year from 47 volcanoes, none exceeding VEI 4, while USGS volcano notices maintain advisory or watch levels for unrest at sites like Shishaldin and paused effusive activity at Kīlauea. Recent developments, including Semeru's March 29 explosive phase and Axial Seamount's anticipated mid-year underwater effusion, pose no VEI ≥6 threat. Weekly USGS and GVP updates will track seismic, deformation, and gas trends for any escalation through December.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoGrande erupção vulcânica (vei ≥6) em 2026?
Grande erupção vulcânica (vei ≥6) em 2026?
Sim
$38,024 Vol.
$38,024 Vol.
31 mar 2027
Sim
$38,024 Vol.
$38,024 Vol.
31 mar 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no major volcanic eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥6) occurring in 2026, justified by the extreme rarity of such colossal events—last seen with Mount Pinatubo's VEI 6 in 1991 ejecting over 10 cubic kilometers of dense rock equivalent—and the absence of precursors in current global monitoring. As of April 2, 2026, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data logs 47 eruptions this year from 47 volcanoes, none exceeding VEI 4, while USGS volcano notices maintain advisory or watch levels for unrest at sites like Shishaldin and paused effusive activity at Kīlauea. Recent developments, including Semeru's March 29 explosive phase and Axial Seamount's anticipated mid-year underwater effusion, pose no VEI ≥6 threat. Weekly USGS and GVP updates will track seismic, deformation, and gas trends for any escalation through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$38,024Data de Término
31 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no major volcanic eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥6) occurring in 2026, justified by the extreme rarity of such colossal events—last seen with Mount Pinatubo's VEI 6 in 1991 ejecting over 10 cubic kilometers of dense rock equivalent—and the absence of precursors in current global monitoring. As of April 2, 2026, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data logs 47 eruptions this year from 47 volcanoes, none exceeding VEI 4, while USGS volcano notices maintain advisory or watch levels for unrest at sites like Shishaldin and paused effusive activity at Kīlauea. Recent developments, including Semeru's March 29 explosive phase and Axial Seamount's anticipated mid-year underwater effusion, pose no VEI ≥6 threat. Weekly USGS and GVP updates will track seismic, deformation, and gas trends for any escalation through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$38,024Data de Término
31 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no major volcanic eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥6) occurring in 2026, justified by the extreme rarity of such colossal events—last seen with Mount Pinatubo's VEI 6 in 1991 ejecting over 10 cubic kilometers of dense rock equivalent—and the absence of precursors in current global monitoring. As of April 2, 2026, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data logs 47 eruptions this year from 47 volcanoes, none exceeding VEI 4, while USGS volcano notices maintain advisory or watch levels for unrest at sites like Shishaldin and paused effusive activity at Kīlauea. Recent developments, including Semeru's March 29 explosive phase and Axial Seamount's anticipated mid-year underwater effusion, pose no VEI ≥6 threat. Weekly USGS and GVP updates will track seismic, deformation, and gas trends for any escalation through December.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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