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Clima E Ciência·Pandemias

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

Market icon
Clima E Ciência·Pandemias

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

dez 31

dez 31

Sim

13% acaso
Polymarket

$65,746 Vol.

Sim

13% acaso
Polymarket

$65,746 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on an 87.5% implied probability for "No" reflects the CDC's current absence of any Level 4 Travel Health Notices—the highest tier reserved for extreme, life-threatening disease risks like uncontrolled Ebola or high-transmission hemorrhagic fevers—and the rarity of such issuances amid stable global epidemiology. Recent Level 2 notices for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (issued March 24, 2026) and yellow fever in Venezuela highlight localized outbreaks managed through vaccination and vector control, without escalation signals from WHO or CDC surveillance. Ongoing concerns like clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia, global polio circulation, and U.S. measles upticks remain at lower alert levels, with no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission spikes warranting Level 4. Traders anticipate continued monitoring via weekly CDC updates, but baseline outbreak patterns suggest low risk through December 31.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$65,746
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on an 87.5% implied probability for "No" reflects the CDC's current absence of any Level 4 Travel Health Notices—the highest tier reserved for extreme, life-threatening disease risks like uncontrolled Ebola or high-transmission hemorrhagic fevers—and the rarity of such issuances amid stable global epidemiology. Recent Level 2 notices for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (issued March 24, 2026) and yellow fever in Venezuela highlight localized outbreaks managed through vaccination and vector control, without escalation signals from WHO or CDC surveillance. Ongoing concerns like clade II mpox in Ghana and Liberia, global polio circulation, and U.S. measles upticks remain at lower alert levels, with no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission spikes warranting Level 4. Traders anticipate continued monitoring via weekly CDC updates, but baseline outbreak patterns suggest low risk through December 31.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$65,746
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "CDC emite aviso de Nível 4 até 31 de dezembro?" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 13¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" has generated $65.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" is "CDC emite aviso de Nível 4 até 31 de dezembro?" at 13%, meaning the market assigns a 13% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.