Recent successful Starship Flight 13 in July 2026, featuring an intact ship after a gentle splashdown, has boosted trader confidence by prompting SpaceX plans for a tower catch attempt on the next flight. With the Super Heavy booster already demonstrated reusable via catch-and-refly operations, the focus has shifted to the upper stage, where heat shield durability and rapid turnaround remain key technical hurdles for full system reusability. Official updates emphasize Version 3 hardware upgrades aimed at high flight rates, while historical test cadences suggest a plausible path to both stages being caught and reused by year-end. Upcoming flights and regulatory approvals for catch attempts represent the main near-term catalysts that could solidify or shift the 58% market-implied odds for yes before 2027.