Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 68.7% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance atop the Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Elo scores around 1500, bolstered by strong showings on SWE-Bench Pro (64.3%) and adaptive reasoning benchmarks following its early May release. This edge stems from Anthropic's rapid iteration—major Claude updates every two weeks since January, including Opus 4.6 in February and new banking agents—outpacing rivals amid a competitive landscape. Google trails at 21% on anticipation of Gemini 4 or upgrades at I/O (May 19-20), while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (April launch, now ChatGPT default) lags at #8 in Arena rankings despite coding wins on SWE-Bench Verified, highlighting benchmark-specific gaps. Upcoming releases could shift dynamics before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?
Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?
Anthropic 68.7%
Google 21%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 1.3%
$5,642,688 Vol.
$5,642,688 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
69%
21%
OpenAI
7%
xAI
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 68.7%
Google 21%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 1.3%
$5,642,688 Vol.
$5,642,688 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$808,783 Vol.
69%
$491,108 Vol.
21%
OpenAI
$324,786 Vol.
7%
xAI
$1,036,679 Vol.
1%
Meta
$124,757 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$491,373 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$148,019 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$290,362 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$354,258 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$345,721 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$461,058 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$138,549 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$141,072 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$352,494 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$133,669 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 68.7% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance atop the Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Elo scores around 1500, bolstered by strong showings on SWE-Bench Pro (64.3%) and adaptive reasoning benchmarks following its early May release. This edge stems from Anthropic's rapid iteration—major Claude updates every two weeks since January, including Opus 4.6 in February and new banking agents—outpacing rivals amid a competitive landscape. Google trails at 21% on anticipation of Gemini 4 or upgrades at I/O (May 19-20), while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (April launch, now ChatGPT default) lags at #8 in Arena rankings despite coding wins on SWE-Bench Verified, highlighting benchmark-specific gaps. Upcoming releases could shift dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$5,642,688Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 68.7% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance atop the Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Elo scores around 1500, bolstered by strong showings on SWE-Bench Pro (64.3%) and adaptive reasoning benchmarks following its early May release. This edge stems from Anthropic's rapid iteration—major Claude updates every two weeks since January, including Opus 4.6 in February and new banking agents—outpacing rivals amid a competitive landscape. Google trails at 21% on anticipation of Gemini 4 or upgrades at I/O (May 19-20), while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (April launch, now ChatGPT default) lags at #8 in Arena rankings despite coding wins on SWE-Bench Verified, highlighting benchmark-specific gaps. Upcoming releases could shift dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$5,642,688Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 68.7% implied probability for the best AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominance atop the Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Elo scores around 1500, bolstered by strong showings on SWE-Bench Pro (64.3%) and adaptive reasoning benchmarks following its early May release. This edge stems from Anthropic's rapid iteration—major Claude updates every two weeks since January, including Opus 4.6 in February and new banking agents—outpacing rivals amid a competitive landscape. Google trails at 21% on anticipation of Gemini 4 or upgrades at I/O (May 19-20), while OpenAI's GPT-5.5 (April launch, now ChatGPT default) lags at #8 in Arena rankings despite coding wins on SWE-Bench Verified, highlighting benchmark-specific gaps. Upcoming releases could shift dynamics before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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