Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Anthropic at 51.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—holding the #1 global Elo spot around 1502 as of mid-April 2026, excelling in reasoning, coding, and self-correction benchmarks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, bolstered by March upgrades like enhanced context retention and Flash Live audio capabilities, trails closely at 28.5%, reflecting competitive positioning in multimodal tasks. OpenAI's GPT-5.3 update on April 9 has yet to reclaim the lead, slipping to 13.5% amid tighter races. With xAI's Grok 4.20 and others lagging, sentiment hinges on anticipated June releases and leaderboard shifts from developer conferences or surprise model drops.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?
Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?
Anthropic 51.5%
Google 29%
OpenAI 14%
xAI 3.2%
$3,529,128 Vol.
$3,529,128 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
52%
29%
OpenAI
14%
xAI
3%
Meta
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 51.5%
Google 29%
OpenAI 14%
xAI 3.2%
$3,529,128 Vol.
$3,529,128 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$619,369 Vol.
52%
$342,676 Vol.
29%
OpenAI
$167,222 Vol.
14%
xAI
$893,912 Vol.
3%
Meta
$27,917 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$295,912 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$205,572 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$30,690 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$150,518 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$335,629 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$152,819 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$42,035 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$30,189 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$42,200 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$192,467 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Anthropic at 51.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—holding the #1 global Elo spot around 1502 as of mid-April 2026, excelling in reasoning, coding, and self-correction benchmarks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, bolstered by March upgrades like enhanced context retention and Flash Live audio capabilities, trails closely at 28.5%, reflecting competitive positioning in multimodal tasks. OpenAI's GPT-5.3 update on April 9 has yet to reclaim the lead, slipping to 13.5% amid tighter races. With xAI's Grok 4.20 and others lagging, sentiment hinges on anticipated June releases and leaderboard shifts from developer conferences or surprise model drops.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$3,529,128Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Anthropic at 51.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—holding the #1 global Elo spot around 1502 as of mid-April 2026, excelling in reasoning, coding, and self-correction benchmarks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, bolstered by March upgrades like enhanced context retention and Flash Live audio capabilities, trails closely at 28.5%, reflecting competitive positioning in multimodal tasks. OpenAI's GPT-5.3 update on April 9 has yet to reclaim the lead, slipping to 13.5% amid tighter races. With xAI's Grok 4.20 and others lagging, sentiment hinges on anticipated June releases and leaderboard shifts from developer conferences or surprise model drops.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$3,529,128Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Anthropic at 51.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—holding the #1 global Elo spot around 1502 as of mid-April 2026, excelling in reasoning, coding, and self-correction benchmarks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, bolstered by March upgrades like enhanced context retention and Flash Live audio capabilities, trails closely at 28.5%, reflecting competitive positioning in multimodal tasks. OpenAI's GPT-5.3 update on April 9 has yet to reclaim the lead, slipping to 13.5% amid tighter races. With xAI's Grok 4.20 and others lagging, sentiment hinges on anticipated June releases and leaderboard shifts from developer conferences or surprise model drops.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions