Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 55.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model spot by June 30 in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's Style Control On category, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominant performance—its Thinking variant claims #1 on Code Arena and multiple domain leaderboards like Gaming and Simulations as of early May updates. This edge stems from recent releases outperforming rivals, with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 lagging at #8 and no major breakthroughs. Google trails at 26% on speculation of a Gemini refresh, bolstered by competitive positioning, while others like xAI and DeepSeek reflect lower expectations amid infrastructure constraints. Upcoming model announcements or benchmark shifts could alter dynamics before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)
Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)
Anthropic 54%
Google 26%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 3.1%
$1,444,769 Vol.
$1,444,769 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
54%
26%
OpenAI
7%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
Meta
1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 54%
Google 26%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 3.1%
$1,444,769 Vol.
$1,444,769 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$28,516 Vol.
54%
$17,817 Vol.
26%
OpenAI
$49,084 Vol.
7%
xAI
$14,465 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$200,796 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$412,646 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$135,794 Vol.
1%
Meta
$6,842 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,084 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$270,262 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$58,505 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$8,719 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$17,342 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,524 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$8,371 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 55.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model spot by June 30 in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's Style Control On category, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominant performance—its Thinking variant claims #1 on Code Arena and multiple domain leaderboards like Gaming and Simulations as of early May updates. This edge stems from recent releases outperforming rivals, with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 lagging at #8 and no major breakthroughs. Google trails at 26% on speculation of a Gemini refresh, bolstered by competitive positioning, while others like xAI and DeepSeek reflect lower expectations amid infrastructure constraints. Upcoming model announcements or benchmark shifts could alter dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$1,444,769Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 55.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model spot by June 30 in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's Style Control On category, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominant performance—its Thinking variant claims #1 on Code Arena and multiple domain leaderboards like Gaming and Simulations as of early May updates. This edge stems from recent releases outperforming rivals, with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 lagging at #8 and no major breakthroughs. Google trails at 26% on speculation of a Gemini refresh, bolstered by competitive positioning, while others like xAI and DeepSeek reflect lower expectations amid infrastructure constraints. Upcoming model announcements or benchmark shifts could alter dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,444,769Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 55.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model spot by June 30 in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's Style Control On category, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominant performance—its Thinking variant claims #1 on Code Arena and multiple domain leaderboards like Gaming and Simulations as of early May updates. This edge stems from recent releases outperforming rivals, with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 lagging at #8 and no major breakthroughs. Google trails at 26% on speculation of a Gemini refresh, bolstered by competitive positioning, while others like xAI and DeepSeek reflect lower expectations amid infrastructure constraints. Upcoming model announcements or benchmark shifts could alter dynamics before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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