Market icon
Tecnologia·OpenAI

Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)

Market icon
Tecnologia·OpenAI

Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)

abr 30

jun 30

abr 30

jun 30

Anthropic 51%

Google 20%

OpenAI 14%

xAI 8%

Polymarket

$925,951 Vol.

Anthropic 51%

Google 20%

OpenAI 14%

xAI 8%

Polymarket

$925,951 Vol.

Market icon

Anthropic

$16,467 Vol.

51%

Market icon

Google

$8,784 Vol.

20%

Market icon

OpenAI

$42,853 Vol.

14%

Market icon

xAI

$6,893 Vol.

8%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$174,882 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Moonshot

$196,415 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Mistral

$42,527 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Meituan

$115,310 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Z.ai

$204,317 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Alibaba

$117,503 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 50.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 dominating LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards since their February releases, bolstered by a March 31 leak revealing unreleased Claude Mythos as Anthropic's most advanced model yet with superior reasoning. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (19.5%) narrowed the gap via February benchmark wins in complex tasks, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (14.5%) leads agentic benchmarks but trails in overall rankings. xAI's Grok 4 updates (7.5%) show STEM gains, but Chinese challengers like DeepSeek lag. With rapid iteration cycles, upcoming releases before summer could shift dynamics amid three months to resolution.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$925,951
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Anthropic a 50.5% implied probability of holding the top AI model by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 dominating LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboards since their February releases, bolstered by a March 31 leak revealing unreleased Claude Mythos as Anthropic's most advanced model yet with superior reasoning. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro (19.5%) narrowed the gap via February benchmark wins in complex tasks, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 (14.5%) leads agentic benchmarks but trails in overall rankings. xAI's Grok 4 updates (7.5%) show STEM gains, but Chinese challengers like DeepSeek lag. With rapid iteration cycles, upcoming releases before summer could shift dynamics amid three months to resolution.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$925,951
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 51%, followed by "Google" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)" has generated $926K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)" is "Anthropic" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de junho? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.