Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability against an Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2027, narrowly ahead of a 39% chance for a closing market cap exceeding $600 billion, reflecting the AI startup's stratospheric trajectory amid execution uncertainties. The primary catalyst is Anthropic's February 2026 Series G funding round, which raised $30 billion at a $380 billion post-money valuation—more than doubling prior marks—fueled by surging demand for its Claude large language models and enterprise AI deployments. Late March reports from The Information and Bloomberg highlight discussions for a Q4 2026 IPO potentially raising over $60 billion, yet traders factor in risks like volatile public markets, intensifying competition from OpenAI, and regulatory pressures on AI safety and antitrust scrutiny from backers Amazon and Google. Lower valuation bins languish below 2% given the firm's revenue run-rate tripling toward $26 billion. Watch for S-1 filings or model capability demos as key swing factors.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoCapital de mercado de fechamento de IPO antrópico
Capital de mercado de fechamento de IPO antrópico
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027 54%
600B+ 39%
400–600B 1.8%
300–400B 1.1%
$101,172 Vol.
$101,172 Vol.
31 dez 2027
<100B
<1%
100–200B
1%
200–300B
<1%
300–400B
1%
400–600B
2%
600B+
39%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027
54%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027 54%
600B+ 39%
400–600B 1.8%
300–400B 1.1%
$101,172 Vol.
$101,172 Vol.
31 dez 2027
<100B
$48,538 Vol.
<1%
100–200B
$5,174 Vol.
1%
200–300B
$3,934 Vol.
<1%
300–400B
$26,606 Vol.
1%
400–600B
$4,166 Vol.
2%
600B+
$7,685 Vol.
39%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2027
$5,069 Vol.
54%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability against an Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2027, narrowly ahead of a 39% chance for a closing market cap exceeding $600 billion, reflecting the AI startup's stratospheric trajectory amid execution uncertainties. The primary catalyst is Anthropic's February 2026 Series G funding round, which raised $30 billion at a $380 billion post-money valuation—more than doubling prior marks—fueled by surging demand for its Claude large language models and enterprise AI deployments. Late March reports from The Information and Bloomberg highlight discussions for a Q4 2026 IPO potentially raising over $60 billion, yet traders factor in risks like volatile public markets, intensifying competition from OpenAI, and regulatory pressures on AI safety and antitrust scrutiny from backers Amazon and Google. Lower valuation bins languish below 2% given the firm's revenue run-rate tripling toward $26 billion. Watch for S-1 filings or model capability demos as key swing factors.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ET
Volume
$101,172Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability against an Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2027, narrowly ahead of a 39% chance for a closing market cap exceeding $600 billion, reflecting the AI startup's stratospheric trajectory amid execution uncertainties. The primary catalyst is Anthropic's February 2026 Series G funding round, which raised $30 billion at a $380 billion post-money valuation—more than doubling prior marks—fueled by surging demand for its Claude large language models and enterprise AI deployments. Late March reports from The Information and Bloomberg highlight discussions for a Q4 2026 IPO potentially raising over $60 billion, yet traders factor in risks like volatile public markets, intensifying competition from OpenAI, and regulatory pressures on AI safety and antitrust scrutiny from backers Amazon and Google. Lower valuation bins languish below 2% given the firm's revenue run-rate tripling toward $26 billion. Watch for S-1 filings or model capability demos as key swing factors.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$101,172Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability against an Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2027, narrowly ahead of a 39% chance for a closing market cap exceeding $600 billion, reflecting the AI startup's stratospheric trajectory amid execution uncertainties. The primary catalyst is Anthropic's February 2026 Series G funding round, which raised $30 billion at a $380 billion post-money valuation—more than doubling prior marks—fueled by surging demand for its Claude large language models and enterprise AI deployments. Late March reports from The Information and Bloomberg highlight discussions for a Q4 2026 IPO potentially raising over $60 billion, yet traders factor in risks like volatile public markets, intensifying competition from OpenAI, and regulatory pressures on AI safety and antitrust scrutiny from backers Amazon and Google. Lower valuation bins languish below 2% given the firm's revenue run-rate tripling toward $26 billion. Watch for S-1 filings or model capability demos as key swing factors.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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