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icon for O IPO da Anthropic ou da OpenAI será o primeiro?
Finanças·OpenAI

O IPO da Anthropic ou da OpenAI será o primeiro?

icon for O IPO da Anthropic ou da OpenAI será o primeiro?
Finanças·OpenAI

O IPO da Anthropic ou da OpenAI será o primeiro?

Anthropic

69% chance
Polymarket

$54,770 Vol.

Anthropic

69% chance
Polymarket

$54,770 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s accelerated IPO preparations, including early engagement with law firm Wilson Sonsini in late 2025 and recent discussions with major banks for an October 2026 listing at a potential $900 billion valuation, underpin the 68.5% market-implied probability favoring it over OpenAI. Fresh reports of Anthropic pursuing a multibillion-dollar funding round this summer further signal readiness to access public markets ahead of its rival. In contrast, OpenAI faces headwinds from missed internal revenue targets, ongoing litigation with Elon Musk, and public caution from its CFO about public-company readiness, pushing expectations toward late 2026 or 2027. Traders appear to weigh these execution timelines and structural differences as the decisive factors in the race between the two leading large language model developers.

This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.

This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.

This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$54,770
Data de Término
31 dez 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s accelerated IPO preparations, including early engagement with law firm Wilson Sonsini in late 2025 and recent discussions with major banks for an October 2026 listing at a potential $900 billion valuation, underpin the 68.5% market-implied probability favoring it over OpenAI. Fresh reports of Anthropic pursuing a multibillion-dollar funding round this summer further signal readiness to access public markets ahead of its rival. In contrast, OpenAI faces headwinds from missed internal revenue targets, ongoing litigation with Elon Musk, and public caution from its CFO about public-company readiness, pushing expectations toward late 2026 or 2027. Traders appear to weigh these execution timelines and structural differences as the decisive factors in the race between the two leading large language model developers.

This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.

This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.

This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$54,770
Data de Término
31 dez 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"O IPO da Anthropic ou da OpenAI será o primeiro?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Qual empresa fará IPO primeiro: Anthropic ou OpenAI?" at 69%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "O IPO da Anthropic ou da OpenAI será o primeiro?" has generated $54.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "O IPO da Anthropic ou da OpenAI será o primeiro?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O IPO da Anthropic ou da OpenAI será o primeiro?" is "Qual empresa fará IPO primeiro: Anthropic ou OpenAI?" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O IPO da Anthropic ou da OpenAI será o primeiro?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.