Recent benchmark results and model releases have positioned Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview as the frontrunner for third place, with traders assigning it 53.5% implied probability. Strong showings on GPQA Diamond, LMArena human-preference rankings, and several reasoning suites have narrowed the gap with leaders from OpenAI and Anthropic, while enterprise integration signals reinforce its standing. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 follows closely at 42% amid gains in verified coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and rising developer adoption reported in mid-May. OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants, viewed as top-tier overall, hold just 1.4%, reflecting market consensus that they occupy first or second. No major launches are scheduled before month-end, leaving the outcome sensitive to any late benchmark updates or enterprise announcements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoWhich company has the third best AI model end of May?
Google 49%
Anthropic 46%
OpenAI 1.4%
xAI <1%
$125,918 Vol.
$125,918 Vol.

49%

Anthropic
46%

OpenAI
1%

xAI
<1%

Meta
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Baidu
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Google 49%
Anthropic 46%
OpenAI 1.4%
xAI <1%
$125,918 Vol.
$125,918 Vol.

49%

Anthropic
46%

OpenAI
1%

xAI
<1%

Meta
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Baidu
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent benchmark results and model releases have positioned Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview as the frontrunner for third place, with traders assigning it 53.5% implied probability. Strong showings on GPQA Diamond, LMArena human-preference rankings, and several reasoning suites have narrowed the gap with leaders from OpenAI and Anthropic, while enterprise integration signals reinforce its standing. Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 follows closely at 42% amid gains in verified coding benchmarks like SWE-bench and rising developer adoption reported in mid-May. OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants, viewed as top-tier overall, hold just 1.4%, reflecting market consensus that they occupy first or second. No major launches are scheduled before month-end, leaving the outcome sensitive to any late benchmark updates or enterprise announcements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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