Market icon
Clima E Ciência·Pandemias

CDC emite aviso de Nível 3 até 31 de dezembro?

Market icon
Clima E Ciência·Pandemias

CDC emite aviso de Nível 3 até 31 de dezembro?

dez 31

dez 31

Sim

49% acaso
Polymarket

$101,456 Vol.

Sim

49% acaso
Polymarket

$101,456 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The closely contested market-implied probability of 51.5% for No on a CDC Level 3 Travel Health Notice by December 31 stems from the agency's conservative criteria, requiring high traveler risk with limited preventive measures—unmet despite recent Level 2 notices for global poliovirus circulation in over 30 countries (March 2026), meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24), and yellow fever in Venezuela (March 16). Ongoing U.S. measles outbreaks, with 1,671 confirmed cases and 17 new clusters through late March, plus H5N1 avian influenza surveillance showing sporadic human infections without sustained transmission, have not triggered escalation. Key uncertainties include polio geographic spread, measles importation risks amid low vaccination rates, and potential respiratory pathogen surges into winter. Watch CDC's weekly Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports, FluView updates, and WHO outbreak assessments for tipping points.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$101,456
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The closely contested market-implied probability of 51.5% for No on a CDC Level 3 Travel Health Notice by December 31 stems from the agency's conservative criteria, requiring high traveler risk with limited preventive measures—unmet despite recent Level 2 notices for global poliovirus circulation in over 30 countries (March 2026), meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24), and yellow fever in Venezuela (March 16). Ongoing U.S. measles outbreaks, with 1,671 confirmed cases and 17 new clusters through late March, plus H5N1 avian influenza surveillance showing sporadic human infections without sustained transmission, have not triggered escalation. Key uncertainties include polio geographic spread, measles importation risks amid low vaccination rates, and potential respiratory pathogen surges into winter. Watch CDC's weekly Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports, FluView updates, and WHO outbreak assessments for tipping points.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$101,456
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"CDC emite aviso de Nível 3 até 31 de dezembro?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "O CDC emite alerta de Nível 3 até 31 de dezembro?" at 49%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CDC emite aviso de Nível 3 até 31 de dezembro?" has generated $101.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CDC emite aviso de Nível 3 até 31 de dezembro?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CDC emite aviso de Nível 3 até 31 de dezembro?" is "O CDC emite alerta de Nível 3 até 31 de dezembro?" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CDC emite aviso de Nível 3 até 31 de dezembro?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.