Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs Elon Musk's tweet volume for March 26-28, 2026, at 65-89 posts (29.5% implied probability), narrowly ahead of 90-114 (26.5%), reflecting his consistent high-output pattern of 20-35 daily tweets amid cultural firestorms like politics and tech reveals. Recent surges—peaking over 100 posts in election-frenzied days—fuel optimism for upper bins, yet weekend lulls and no confirmed events (e.g., Starship tests or Tesla launches) temper expectations, favoring moderated tallies. Differentiators include spontaneous viral moments versus routine engagement, with lower bins like 40-64 (18.5%) gaining if Musk delegates amid board pressures, underscoring the market's razor-thin dynamics hinging on his unpredictable cultural megaphone.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado65-89 30%
90-114 27%
40-64 19%
115-139 16%
$148,835 Vol.
$148,835 Vol.
<40
2%
40-64
19%
65-89
30%
90-114
27%
115-139
16%
140-164
6%
165-189
2%
190-214
1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 30%
90-114 27%
40-64 19%
115-139 16%
$148,835 Vol.
$148,835 Vol.
<40
2%
40-64
19%
65-89
30%
90-114
27%
115-139
16%
140-164
6%
165-189
2%
190-214
1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs Elon Musk's tweet volume for March 26-28, 2026, at 65-89 posts (29.5% implied probability), narrowly ahead of 90-114 (26.5%), reflecting his consistent high-output pattern of 20-35 daily tweets amid cultural firestorms like politics and tech reveals. Recent surges—peaking over 100 posts in election-frenzied days—fuel optimism for upper bins, yet weekend lulls and no confirmed events (e.g., Starship tests or Tesla launches) temper expectations, favoring moderated tallies. Differentiators include spontaneous viral moments versus routine engagement, with lower bins like 40-64 (18.5%) gaining if Musk delegates amid board pressures, underscoring the market's razor-thin dynamics hinging on his unpredictable cultural megaphone.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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