Trader consensus crowns Finland's Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen with "Liekinheitin" as the clear frontrunner at 39.1% implied probability, fueled by their commanding UMK 2026 victory on February 28 and the song's electrifying violin-pop fusion earning rave previews for broad jury and televote appeal—echoing past winners like Netta. France's 17-year-old Monroe vaults to 10.9% post-internal selection reveal this week for emotive "Regarde," injecting fresh buzz amid streaming traction. Denmark's Søren Torpegaard Lund clings to 10.4% with heartfelt "Før vi går hjem," while Greece's high-energy Akylas ("Ferto") and Australia's Delta Goodrem ("Eclipse") trail as televote dark horses. Semi-final running orders dropped April 2 position Finland seventh in the first heat, priming Vienna's May 12-14 showdown as markets eye rehearsal reveals and fan polls.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor do Eurovisão 2026
Vencedor do Eurovisão 2026
Finlândia 39.1%
França 11.3%
Dinamarca 10.3%
Grécia 6.8%
$67,156,495 Vol.
$67,156,495 Vol.

Finlândia
39%

França
11%

Dinamarca
10%

Grécia
7%

Austrália
7%

Israel
4%

Suécia
4%

Romênia
4%

Ucrânia
2%

Itália
2%

Chipre
1%

Chéquia
1%

Malta
1%

Bulgária
1%

Moldávia
1%

Croácia
1%

Luxemburgo
1%

Noruega
1%

Lituânia
1%

Bélgica
<1%

Alemanha
<1%

Sérvia
<1%

Suíça
<1%

Reino Unido
<1%

Albânia
<1%

Armênia
<1%

Geórgia
<1%

Montenegro
<1%

Polônia
<1%

Áustria
<1%

Estônia
<1%

Letônia
<1%

Portugal
<1%

San Marino
<1%

Azerbaijão
<1%
Finlândia 39.1%
França 11.3%
Dinamarca 10.3%
Grécia 6.8%
$67,156,495 Vol.
$67,156,495 Vol.

Finlândia
39%

França
11%

Dinamarca
10%

Grécia
7%

Austrália
7%

Israel
4%

Suécia
4%

Romênia
4%

Ucrânia
2%

Itália
2%

Chipre
1%

Chéquia
1%

Malta
1%

Bulgária
1%

Moldávia
1%

Croácia
1%

Luxemburgo
1%

Noruega
1%

Lituânia
1%

Bélgica
<1%

Alemanha
<1%

Sérvia
<1%

Suíça
<1%

Reino Unido
<1%

Albânia
<1%

Armênia
<1%

Geórgia
<1%

Montenegro
<1%

Polônia
<1%

Áustria
<1%

Estônia
<1%

Letônia
<1%

Portugal
<1%

San Marino
<1%

Azerbaijão
<1%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus crowns Finland's Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen with "Liekinheitin" as the clear frontrunner at 39.1% implied probability, fueled by their commanding UMK 2026 victory on February 28 and the song's electrifying violin-pop fusion earning rave previews for broad jury and televote appeal—echoing past winners like Netta. France's 17-year-old Monroe vaults to 10.9% post-internal selection reveal this week for emotive "Regarde," injecting fresh buzz amid streaming traction. Denmark's Søren Torpegaard Lund clings to 10.4% with heartfelt "Før vi går hjem," while Greece's high-energy Akylas ("Ferto") and Australia's Delta Goodrem ("Eclipse") trail as televote dark horses. Semi-final running orders dropped April 2 position Finland seventh in the first heat, priming Vienna's May 12-14 showdown as markets eye rehearsal reveals and fan polls.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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