Trader consensus on the "Maduro Prison Time?" market reflects uncertainty in the U.S. federal prosecution of ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and arms trafficking charges, following his January 3 capture in a U.S. raid and pretrial detention in Brooklyn. No prison time leads at 35.5% due to ongoing pretrial challenges, including a March 26 hearing where Judge Alvin Hellerstein rejected dismissal motions but questioned U.S. sanctions blocking Venezuelan funds for his defense—emphasizing counsel rights—potentially delaying trial beyond the market's December 2027 end. The 25% on 60+ years underscores mandatory 20-year minimums and life maximums if convicted, bolstered by cooperating ex-officials, though no trial date is set amid appeals risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSem pena de prisão 36%
60+ 26%
40–60 16%
<20 14.7%
$444,783 Vol.
$444,783 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Sem pena de prisão
36%
<20
15%
20–40
11%
40–60
16%
60+
26%
Sem pena de prisão 36%
60+ 26%
40–60 16%
<20 14.7%
$444,783 Vol.
$444,783 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Sem pena de prisão
$349,140 Vol.
36%
<20
$27,758 Vol.
15%
20–40
$26,725 Vol.
11%
40–60
$12,570 Vol.
16%
60+
$28,590 Vol.
26%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the "Maduro Prison Time?" market reflects uncertainty in the U.S. federal prosecution of ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and arms trafficking charges, following his January 3 capture in a U.S. raid and pretrial detention in Brooklyn. No prison time leads at 35.5% due to ongoing pretrial challenges, including a March 26 hearing where Judge Alvin Hellerstein rejected dismissal motions but questioned U.S. sanctions blocking Venezuelan funds for his defense—emphasizing counsel rights—potentially delaying trial beyond the market's December 2027 end. The 25% on 60+ years underscores mandatory 20-year minimums and life maximums if convicted, bolstered by cooperating ex-officials, though no trial date is set amid appeals risks.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Volume
$444,783Data de Término
Dec 31, 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the "Maduro Prison Time?" market reflects uncertainty in the U.S. federal prosecution of ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and arms trafficking charges, following his January 3 capture in a U.S. raid and pretrial detention in Brooklyn. No prison time leads at 35.5% due to ongoing pretrial challenges, including a March 26 hearing where Judge Alvin Hellerstein rejected dismissal motions but questioned U.S. sanctions blocking Venezuelan funds for his defense—emphasizing counsel rights—potentially delaying trial beyond the market's December 2027 end. The 25% on 60+ years underscores mandatory 20-year minimums and life maximums if convicted, bolstered by cooperating ex-officials, though no trial date is set amid appeals risks.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$444,783Data de Término
Dec 31, 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the "Maduro Prison Time?" market reflects uncertainty in the U.S. federal prosecution of ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and arms trafficking charges, following his January 3 capture in a U.S. raid and pretrial detention in Brooklyn. No prison time leads at 35.5% due to ongoing pretrial challenges, including a March 26 hearing where Judge Alvin Hellerstein rejected dismissal motions but questioned U.S. sanctions blocking Venezuelan funds for his defense—emphasizing counsel rights—potentially delaying trial beyond the market's December 2027 end. The 25% on 60+ years underscores mandatory 20-year minimums and life maximums if convicted, bolstered by cooperating ex-officials, though no trial date is set amid appeals risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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