Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 95.3% implied probability to Ayatollah Khamenei posting fewer than 20 times on his official X account (@khamenei_ir) during the March 20-27, 2026 week, driven by the Supreme Leader's consistent historical pattern of sparse activity—typically 1-5 posts weekly addressing Iranian foreign policy, regional tensions, or holidays. Recent months confirm this low frequency, with no acceleration despite escalations like Israel-Iran airstrikes or Gaza developments, as posts remain selective official statements. This frontrunner's dominance reflects years of data showing rare weekly totals above 10, even during Nowruz periods. Realistic challenges include a sudden geopolitical crisis spurring frequent updates, health events curtailing output, or expanded holiday messaging, though precedents indicate limited shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoKhamenei # publica de 20 a 27 de março de 2026?
Khamenei # publica de 20 a 27 de março de 2026?
<20 95.0%
20-39 5.7%
40-59 <1%
60-79 <1%
$21,486 Vol.
$21,486 Vol.
Mar 27, 2026
<20
95%
20-39
6%
40-59
1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200+
<1%
<20 95.0%
20-39 5.7%
40-59 <1%
60-79 <1%
$21,486 Vol.
$21,486 Vol.
Mar 27, 2026
<20
$13,339 Vol.
95%
20-39
$4,517 Vol.
6%
40-59
$3,631 Vol.
1%
60-79
$0 Vol.
<1%
80-99
$0 Vol.
<1%
100-119
$0 Vol.
<1%
120-139
$0 Vol.
<1%
140-159
$0 Vol.
<1%
160-179
$0 Vol.
<1%
180-199
$0 Vol.
<1%
200+
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between March 20, 12:00 PM ET and March 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 95.3% implied probability to Ayatollah Khamenei posting fewer than 20 times on his official X account (@khamenei_ir) during the March 20-27, 2026 week, driven by the Supreme Leader's consistent historical pattern of sparse activity—typically 1-5 posts weekly addressing Iranian foreign policy, regional tensions, or holidays. Recent months confirm this low frequency, with no acceleration despite escalations like Israel-Iran airstrikes or Gaza developments, as posts remain selective official statements. This frontrunner's dominance reflects years of data showing rare weekly totals above 10, even during Nowruz periods. Realistic challenges include a sudden geopolitical crisis spurring frequent updates, health events curtailing output, or expanded holiday messaging, though precedents indicate limited shifts.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between March 20, 12:00 PM ET and March 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$21,486Data de Término
Mar 27, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between March 20, 12:00 PM ET and March 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 95.3% implied probability to Ayatollah Khamenei posting fewer than 20 times on his official X account (@khamenei_ir) during the March 20-27, 2026 week, driven by the Supreme Leader's consistent historical pattern of sparse activity—typically 1-5 posts weekly addressing Iranian foreign policy, regional tensions, or holidays. Recent months confirm this low frequency, with no acceleration despite escalations like Israel-Iran airstrikes or Gaza developments, as posts remain selective official statements. This frontrunner's dominance reflects years of data showing rare weekly totals above 10, even during Nowruz periods. Realistic challenges include a sudden geopolitical crisis spurring frequent updates, health events curtailing output, or expanded holiday messaging, though precedents indicate limited shifts.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between March 20, 12:00 PM ET and March 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$21,486Data de Término
Mar 27, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 95.3% implied probability to Ayatollah Khamenei posting fewer than 20 times on his official X account (@khamenei_ir) during the March 20-27, 2026 week, driven by the Supreme Leader's consistent historical pattern of sparse activity—typically 1-5 posts weekly addressing Iranian foreign policy, regional tensions, or holidays. Recent months confirm this low frequency, with no acceleration despite escalations like Israel-Iran airstrikes or Gaza developments, as posts remain selective official statements. This frontrunner's dominance reflects years of data showing rare weekly totals above 10, even during Nowruz periods. Realistic challenges include a sudden geopolitical crisis spurring frequent updates, health events curtailing output, or expanded holiday messaging, though precedents indicate limited shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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