Trader consensus implies a 66.5% probability of over 6,000 US flight delays on March 27, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts for severe thunderstorms across the Southeast and Midwest flight corridors, overlapping peak spring break travel volumes. March 25 saw over 5,500 delays amid similar storms and FAA-mandated ground stops at hubs like Atlanta (ATL) and Dallas (DFW), compounded by chronic air traffic controller shortages that have averaged 1,000+ daily delays nationwide per recent DOT reports. Lower ranges like 5,500-6,000 (24.5%) account for potential storm intensity variations, while sub-5,000 outcomes lag given historical bad-weather precedents exceeding 7,000 delays on BTS-tracked days. Real-time monitoring via FlightAware could adjust sentiment as conditions evolve.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoNumber of US Flights Delayed March 27?
Number of US Flights Delayed March 27?
>6,000 67%
5,500-6,000 25%
5,000-5,500 21%
4,500-5,000 12%
$1,157 Vol.
$1,157 Vol.
<3,000
5%
3,000-3,500
2%
3,500-4,000
2%
4,000-4,500
10%
4,500-5,000
12%
5,000-5,500
21%
5,500-6,000
25%
>6,000
67%
>6,000 67%
5,500-6,000 25%
5,000-5,500 21%
4,500-5,000 12%
$1,157 Vol.
$1,157 Vol.
<3,000
5%
3,000-3,500
2%
3,500-4,000
2%
4,000-4,500
10%
4,500-5,000
12%
5,000-5,500
21%
5,500-6,000
25%
>6,000
67%
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 26, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Resolution Source
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus implies a 66.5% probability of over 6,000 US flight delays on March 27, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts for severe thunderstorms across the Southeast and Midwest flight corridors, overlapping peak spring break travel volumes. March 25 saw over 5,500 delays amid similar storms and FAA-mandated ground stops at hubs like Atlanta (ATL) and Dallas (DFW), compounded by chronic air traffic controller shortages that have averaged 1,000+ daily delays nationwide per recent DOT reports. Lower ranges like 5,500-6,000 (24.5%) account for potential storm intensity variations, while sub-5,000 outcomes lag given historical bad-weather precedents exceeding 7,000 delays on BTS-tracked days. Real-time monitoring via FlightAware could adjust sentiment as conditions evolve.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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