Trader consensus on March 26 US flight delays clusters tightly around 3,000-5,000, with under 3,000 at 44.5% edging out 3,500-4,000 and 4,500-5,000 at 40%, driven by recent daily averages of 4,200-4,800 amid spring break travel peaks and recovering FAA operations. Yesterday's 4,100 delays stemmed from Midwest wind shear at O'Hare and Atlanta hubs, while the past week saw dips below 4,000 on calmer days, highlighting weather volatility as the key swing factor. National Weather Service predicts scattered thunderstorms in Florida, Texas, and Northeast corridors—prime routes—maintaining uncertainty; intensifying storms or air traffic control constraints could surge higher bins, but favorable winds and no NOTAM issues might validate the sub-3,000 leader. DOT's afternoon data release will sharpen separation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoNumber of US Flights Delayed March 26?
Number of US Flights Delayed March 26?
3,000-3,500 40%
3,500-4,000 40%
4,500-5,000 40%
4,000-4,500 36%
$16 Vol.
$16 Vol.
<3,000
40%
3,000-3,500
40%
3,500-4,000
40%
4,000-4,500
36%
4,500-5,000
40%
5,000-5,500
35%
5,500-6,000
35%
>6,000
35%
3,000-3,500 40%
3,500-4,000 40%
4,500-5,000 40%
4,000-4,500 36%
$16 Vol.
$16 Vol.
<3,000
40%
3,000-3,500
40%
3,500-4,000
40%
4,000-4,500
36%
4,500-5,000
40%
5,000-5,500
35%
5,500-6,000
35%
>6,000
35%
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 25, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on March 26 US flight delays clusters tightly around 3,000-5,000, with under 3,000 at 44.5% edging out 3,500-4,000 and 4,500-5,000 at 40%, driven by recent daily averages of 4,200-4,800 amid spring break travel peaks and recovering FAA operations. Yesterday's 4,100 delays stemmed from Midwest wind shear at O'Hare and Atlanta hubs, while the past week saw dips below 4,000 on calmer days, highlighting weather volatility as the key swing factor. National Weather Service predicts scattered thunderstorms in Florida, Texas, and Northeast corridors—prime routes—maintaining uncertainty; intensifying storms or air traffic control constraints could surge higher bins, but favorable winds and no NOTAM issues might validate the sub-3,000 leader. DOT's afternoon data release will sharpen separation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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