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Fed predictions & odds

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Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

98%

No change

$29M Vol.

$2M today

$4M Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

100%

June 30

$6M Vol.

$1M today

$205K Liq.

240

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

67%

0 (0 bps)

$27M Vol.

$275K today

$1M Liq.

74

Ends in 8 months

Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

93%

No change

$5M Vol.

$112K today

$700K Liq.

1

Ends in 2 months

When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?

When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?

89%

May 15–22

$147K Vol.

$44.9K Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

95%

May 31

$102K Vol.

$23.7K Liq.

6

Ends in about 2 months

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

32%

$1M Vol.

$61.6K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

98%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$1M Vol.

$73.8K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Fed Decision in September?

Fed Decision in September?

77%

No change

$9.3K Vol.

$256K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

2%

$14.1K Vol.

$26.5K Liq.

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

27%

December Meeting

$2M Vol.

$161K Liq.

17

Ends in about 1 month

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

32%

↓ 3.25%

$1M Vol.

$115K Liq.

5

Ends in 8 months

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

62%

0

$16.3K Vol.

$22.9K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

62%

3.75%

$7M Vol.

$123K Liq.

7

Ends in 7 months

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

9%

$105K Vol.

$4.2K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

DOJ reopens Powell investigation by...?

DOJ reopens Powell investigation by...?

5%

June 30

$6.0K Vol.

$30.5K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

<1%

$92.5K Vol.

$15.6K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Fed rate hike by...?

Fed rate hike by...?

26%

October Meeting

$149K Vol.

$61.7K Liq.

Ends in 6 months

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

93%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$49.0K Vol.

$50.0K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

44%

December 31

$320K Vol.

$25.1K Liq.

14

Ends in 8 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Fed.

Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for Fed that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Fed Decision in June?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $80.0M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Fed Decision in June?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Fed Decision in June?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 98% chance to No change. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Fed predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.