Trump's public statements disavowing any intent to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell form the core driver of the 99.6% "No" odds, reinforced by longstanding legal protections requiring "cause" for dismissal—such as inefficiency or neglect—which courts have upheld to preserve Fed independence. Recent interviews, including post-election remarks where Trump explicitly said he does not plan to replace Powell imminently, have solidified trader consensus amid his first-term precedent of criticizing rates without action. With inauguration on January 20 and a tight window to March 31, no catalysts like economic shocks or policy clashes have emerged. Realistic shifts could involve acute inflation spikes prompting aggressive rhetoric, though legal hurdles would likely block execution.