Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95% probability on President Trump resigning before 2027, reflecting the absence of any official statements, health disclosures, impeachment threats, or scandals indicating intent to step down. Recent administration actions, including the early April cabinet shakeup with Kristi Noem's exit and Pam Bondi's firing, underscore Trump's active leadership and agenda execution amid ongoing transitions. Partisan speculation, such as Democratic strategist James Carville's late March prediction of a post-2026 midterm resignation for a VP Vance pardon, lacks supporting evidence and has failed to move markets. With midterms looming in November 2026, traders see significant barriers to resignation barring major late-breaking developments like a health crisis or legal escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$15,680 Vol.
$15,680 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$15,680 Vol.
$15,680 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95% probability on President Trump resigning before 2027, reflecting the absence of any official statements, health disclosures, impeachment threats, or scandals indicating intent to step down. Recent administration actions, including the early April cabinet shakeup with Kristi Noem's exit and Pam Bondi's firing, underscore Trump's active leadership and agenda execution amid ongoing transitions. Partisan speculation, such as Democratic strategist James Carville's late March prediction of a post-2026 midterm resignation for a VP Vance pardon, lacks supporting evidence and has failed to move markets. With midterms looming in November 2026, traders see significant barriers to resignation barring major late-breaking developments like a health crisis or legal escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
Volume
$15,680End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95% probability on President Trump resigning before 2027, reflecting the absence of any official statements, health disclosures, impeachment threats, or scandals indicating intent to step down. Recent administration actions, including the early April cabinet shakeup with Kristi Noem's exit and Pam Bondi's firing, underscore Trump's active leadership and agenda execution amid ongoing transitions. Partisan speculation, such as Democratic strategist James Carville's late March prediction of a post-2026 midterm resignation for a VP Vance pardon, lacks supporting evidence and has failed to move markets. With midterms looming in November 2026, traders see significant barriers to resignation barring major late-breaking developments like a health crisis or legal escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$15,680End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 95% probability on President Trump resigning before 2027, reflecting the absence of any official statements, health disclosures, impeachment threats, or scandals indicating intent to step down. Recent administration actions, including the early April cabinet shakeup with Kristi Noem's exit and Pam Bondi's firing, underscore Trump's active leadership and agenda execution amid ongoing transitions. Partisan speculation, such as Democratic strategist James Carville's late March prediction of a post-2026 midterm resignation for a VP Vance pardon, lacks supporting evidence and has failed to move markets. With midterms looming in November 2026, traders see significant barriers to resignation barring major late-breaking developments like a health crisis or legal escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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