Trump’s active continuation of presidential duties through October 2026, including recent executive actions and campaign appearances ahead of the midterms, underpins the near-certain trader consensus against resignation before 2027. No official announcements, cabinet-level moves, or sustained congressional efforts signal an early departure, and the constitutional barriers to removal via impeachment or the 25th Amendment remain high absent broad bipartisan agreement. Low approval ratings and isolated Democratic calls for invocation of presidential incapacity have not translated into procedural momentum within the narrow remaining window. Traders price in this stability while recognizing that an unforeseen health event or major scandal could still introduce limited uncertainty before year-end.