Trump’s second term, which began with his January 2025 inauguration, faces no verified institutional or personal developments that would prompt resignation or removal by December 31, 2026. Republican majorities in Congress have blocked impeachment efforts and sustained no serious 25th Amendment process, while Trump has shown no public inclination to step aside despite occasional partisan speculation about age, leaks, or midterm fallout. Traders assign the outcome roughly 3 percent probability because historical precedent, structural barriers, and the absence of acute catalysts all point against an exit in the remaining months. Late-breaking health developments, a dramatic bipartisan consensus after the November midterms, or an unforeseen scandal could still alter the timeline, though none currently appear imminent.