Trader consensus around a 97% probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027 reflects the historical rarity of presidential resignations, with only Richard Nixon stepping down amid acute political pressure in 1974. Trump has shown consistent commitment to completing his term, bolstered by strong party support in Congress and no evident institutional or legal mechanisms compelling departure during the current administration. Health considerations, family dynamics, or unforeseen events remain low-probability variables, yet major scandals, health developments, or shifts in congressional dynamics could still introduce pressure. Upcoming midterm elections and any related policy or legal timelines offer the primary near-term catalysts that might influence assessments.