Traders assign a 97% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027 due to his established pattern of completing terms, ongoing policy priorities in a second administration, and absence of recent statements or actions signaling departure. Institutional factors such as cabinet support, congressional alignment, and lack of acute health or legal developments reinforcing resignation further anchor this consensus. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a significant medical event requiring extended incapacity, unforeseen major scandals prompting institutional pressure, or sudden family or personal circumstances altering his calculus within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$25,342 Vol.
$25,342 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$25,342 Vol.
$25,342 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 97% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027 due to his established pattern of completing terms, ongoing policy priorities in a second administration, and absence of recent statements or actions signaling departure. Institutional factors such as cabinet support, congressional alignment, and lack of acute health or legal developments reinforcing resignation further anchor this consensus. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a significant medical event requiring extended incapacity, unforeseen major scandals prompting institutional pressure, or sudden family or personal circumstances altering his calculus within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
Volume
$25,342End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 97% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027 due to his established pattern of completing terms, ongoing policy priorities in a second administration, and absence of recent statements or actions signaling departure. Institutional factors such as cabinet support, congressional alignment, and lack of acute health or legal developments reinforcing resignation further anchor this consensus. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a significant medical event requiring extended incapacity, unforeseen major scandals prompting institutional pressure, or sudden family or personal circumstances altering his calculus within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Traders assign a 97% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning before 2027 due to his established pattern of completing terms, ongoing policy priorities in a second administration, and absence of recent statements or actions signaling departure. Institutional factors such as cabinet support, congressional alignment, and lack of acute health or legal developments reinforcing resignation further anchor this consensus. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a significant medical event requiring extended incapacity, unforeseen major scandals prompting institutional pressure, or sudden family or personal circumstances altering his calculus within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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