President-elect Donald Trump has given no indication of resigning before 2027, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 95% on Polymarket. Recent developments include his ongoing cabinet nominations—such as Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary and Scott Turner for HUD—despite withdrawals like Matt Gaetz amid ethics probes, alongside transition meetings with President Biden and preparations for January 20, 2025, inauguration. Legal challenges, including delayed New York hush-money sentencing past inauguration, have not prompted withdrawal signals. Historical precedent shows U.S. presidents rarely resign absent extraordinary crises like impeachment or health emergencies, with traders viewing such scenarios as low-probability black swans that could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President-elect Donald Trump has given no indication of resigning before 2027, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 95% on Polymarket. Recent developments include his ongoing cabinet nominations—such as Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary and Scott Turner for HUD—despite withdrawals like Matt Gaetz amid ethics probes, alongside transition meetings with President Biden and preparations for January 20, 2025, inauguration. Legal challenges, including delayed New York hush-money sentencing past inauguration, have not prompted withdrawal signals. Historical precedent shows U.S. presidents rarely resign absent extraordinary crises like impeachment or health emergencies, with traders viewing such scenarios as low-probability black swans that could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President-elect Donald Trump has given no indication of resigning before 2027, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 95% on Polymarket. Recent developments include his ongoing cabinet nominations—such as Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary and Scott Turner for HUD—despite withdrawals like Matt Gaetz amid ethics probes, alongside transition meetings with President Biden and preparations for January 20, 2025, inauguration. Legal challenges, including delayed New York hush-money sentencing past inauguration, have not prompted withdrawal signals. Historical precedent shows U.S. presidents rarely resign absent extraordinary crises like impeachment or health emergencies, with traders viewing such scenarios as low-probability black swans that could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President-elect Donald Trump has given no indication of resigning before 2027, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 95% on Polymarket. Recent developments include his ongoing cabinet nominations—such as Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary and Scott Turner for HUD—despite withdrawals like Matt Gaetz amid ethics probes, alongside transition meetings with President Biden and preparations for January 20, 2025, inauguration. Legal challenges, including delayed New York hush-money sentencing past inauguration, have not prompted withdrawal signals. Historical precedent shows U.S. presidents rarely resign absent extraordinary crises like impeachment or health emergencies, with traders viewing such scenarios as low-probability black swans that could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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