Trader consensus assigning a 94.5% implied probability to President Trump not resigning before 2027 stems primarily from the structural incentives of completing a full term, including control over executive actions, judicial appointments, and legislative priorities during the current Congress. Historical patterns show that sitting presidents facing no immediate removal proceedings or acute health crises rarely step down voluntarily, and recent official statements from the White House have reiterated focus on policy implementation without signaling any departure timeline. Key factors sustaining these odds include sustained support within the Republican caucus, absence of bipartisan pressure for resignation, and the electoral calendar extending into 2028. While late-breaking developments such as health events or major scandals could still shift probabilities, no such catalysts have materialized in recent months to alter the prevailing assessment.