Traders see near-certain odds against Donald Trump resigning before 2027 because he has shown no public indication of stepping down, maintains strong party support, and faces no immediate institutional or legal pressures that historically prompt early exits from office. As president-elect or incumbent following the 2024 election, his administration priorities center on policy implementation through at least the midterm cycle, with no scheduled events or confirmation processes that would alter this timeline. While health events, major scandals, or unforeseen congressional developments could theoretically shift dynamics, such scenarios lack supporting evidence at present and would require rapid, verifiable changes to move the consensus reflected in current pricing.