Diplomatic efforts to sustain the US-Iran ceasefire, initially agreed in early April 2026 and extended through Pakistan-mediated channels, remain the central factor shaping trader assessments. Recent statements from US officials, including President Trump describing the truce as fragile and on life support amid Strait of Hormuz clashes and limited drone activity, highlight ongoing tensions even as both sides review proposals addressing nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and troop positions. Iran has signaled openness to talks while reconstituting select military capabilities during the pause, consistent with patterns in prior conflicts. Key upcoming catalysts include responses to interim deal frameworks and any further extensions, with violations or breakthroughs in negotiations likely to shift probabilities around continued de-escalation through the coming weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
$113,693 Vol.
May 20
96%
May 21
88%
May 22
79%
May 24
67%
May 27
62%
May 31
52%
June 7
40%
June 15
36%
June 30
34%
July 31
30%
December 31
23%
$113,693 Vol.
May 20
$22,983 Vol.
96%
May 21
$30,854 Vol.
88%
May 22
$15,481 Vol.
79%
May 24
$13,164 Vol.
67%
May 27
$10,304 Vol.
62%
May 31
$2,309 Vol.
52%
June 7
$3,372 Vol.
40%
June 15
$3,504 Vol.
36%
June 30
$1,816 Vol.
34%
July 31
$5,856 Vol.
30%
December 31
$4,222 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts to sustain the US-Iran ceasefire, initially agreed in early April 2026 and extended through Pakistan-mediated channels, remain the central factor shaping trader assessments. Recent statements from US officials, including President Trump describing the truce as fragile and on life support amid Strait of Hormuz clashes and limited drone activity, highlight ongoing tensions even as both sides review proposals addressing nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and troop positions. Iran has signaled openness to talks while reconstituting select military capabilities during the pause, consistent with patterns in prior conflicts. Key upcoming catalysts include responses to interim deal frameworks and any further extensions, with violations or breakthroughs in negotiations likely to shift probabilities around continued de-escalation through the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
Volume
$113,693Mercato aperto
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts to sustain the US-Iran ceasefire, initially agreed in early April 2026 and extended through Pakistan-mediated channels, remain the central factor shaping trader assessments. Recent statements from US officials, including President Trump describing the truce as fragile and on life support amid Strait of Hormuz clashes and limited drone activity, highlight ongoing tensions even as both sides review proposals addressing nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and troop positions. Iran has signaled openness to talks while reconstituting select military capabilities during the pause, consistent with patterns in prior conflicts. Key upcoming catalysts include responses to interim deal frameworks and any further extensions, with violations or breakthroughs in negotiations likely to shift probabilities around continued de-escalation through the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$113,693Mercato aperto
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic efforts to sustain the US-Iran ceasefire, initially agreed in early April 2026 and extended through Pakistan-mediated channels, remain the central factor shaping trader assessments. Recent statements from US officials, including President Trump describing the truce as fragile and on life support amid Strait of Hormuz clashes and limited drone activity, highlight ongoing tensions even as both sides review proposals addressing nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and troop positions. Iran has signaled openness to talks while reconstituting select military capabilities during the pause, consistent with patterns in prior conflicts. Key upcoming catalysts include responses to interim deal frameworks and any further extensions, with violations or breakthroughs in negotiations likely to shift probabilities around continued de-escalation through the coming weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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