Market icon

Next US x Venezuela military engagement on...?

Market icon

Next US x Venezuela military engagement on...?

No Engagement in 2025 100.0%

November 24 <1%

November 25 <1%

November 26 <1%

Polymarket

$6,115,302 Vol.

No Engagement in 2025 100.0%

November 24 <1%

November 25 <1%

November 26 <1%

Polymarket

$6,115,302 Vol.

November 24

$16,521 Vol.

No

November 25

$12,305 Vol.

No

November 26

$50,403 Vol.

No

November 27

$26,626 Vol.

No

November 28

$110,465 Vol.

No

November 29

$69,037 Vol.

No

November 30

$38,868 Vol.

No

December 1

$152,688 Vol.

No

December 2

$143,803 Vol.

No

December 3

$156,897 Vol.

No

December 4

$114,214 Vol.

No

December 5

$80,954 Vol.

No

December 6

$247,933 Vol.

No

December 7

$252,347 Vol.

No

December 8

$144,644 Vol.

No

December 9

$100,331 Vol.

No

December 10

$139,654 Vol.

No

December 11

$151,302 Vol.

No

December 12

$169,819 Vol.

No

December 13

$156,535 Vol.

No

December 14

$173,132 Vol.

No

December 15

$142,702 Vol.

No

December 16

$246,708 Vol.

No

December 17

$259,801 Vol.

No

December 18

$146,055 Vol.

No

December 19

$182,914 Vol.

No

December 20

$147,100 Vol.

No

December 21

$120,640 Vol.

No

December 22

$169,657 Vol.

No

December 23

$119,274 Vol.

No

December 24

$184,201 Vol.

No

December 25

$230,223 Vol.

No

December 26

$204,551 Vol.

No

December 27

$189,590 Vol.

No

December 28

$150,850 Vol.

No

December 29

$193,759 Vol.

No

December 30

$198,231 Vol.

No

December 31

$203,861 Vol.

No

No Engagement in 2025

$516,706 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) of the next military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela.

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,115,302
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Nov 24, 2025, 5:17 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) of the next military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela. A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify). Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next US x Venezuela military engagement on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 39 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Engagement in 2025" at 100%, followed by "November 24" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next US x Venezuela military engagement on...?" has generated $6.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next US x Venezuela military engagement on...?," browse the 39 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next US x Venezuela military engagement on...?" is "No Engagement in 2025" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "November 24" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next US x Venezuela military engagement on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.