Market icon
Tech·Tesla

How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?

Market icon
Tech·Tesla

How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?

Mar 31

Mar 31

<350k 57%

350k–375k 22%

375k–400k 11.5%

400k–425k 4.4%

Polymarket

$620,871 Vol.

<350k 57%

350k–375k 22%

375k–400k 11.5%

400k–425k 4.4%

Polymarket

$620,871 Vol.

<350k

$182,911 Vol.

57%

350k–375k

$119,580 Vol.

22%

375k–400k

$34,904 Vol.

12%

400k–425k

$19,231 Vol.

4%

425k–450k

$49,388 Vol.

1%

450k–475k

$157,242 Vol.

<1%

475k–500k

$38,144 Vol.

<1%

500k+

$19,472 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026.

If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Volume
$620,871
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.

Trader sentiment on Polymarket tilts bearish for Tesla's Q1 2026 vehicle deliveries, with 57.5% implied probability for under 350,000 units, reflecting doubts about sustained demand amid high interest rates, Chinese EV competition from BYD and others, and delays in volume production for affordable models like the anticipated $25,000 vehicle. Recent Q4 2024 deliveries hit 495,570—up 2% year-over-year but below bullish expectations—coupled with a 10% China sales drop in Q4 and elevated inventory levels, underscore seasonal Q1 weakness historically averaging 15-20% below quarterly norms. Analyst consensus trims 2026 full-year estimates to around 2.2 million vehicles, with Q1 earnings guidance on January 29, 2025, as the next pivotal catalyst.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<350k" at 57%, followed by "350k–375k" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?" has generated $620.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?" is "<350k" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "350k–375k" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.