NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Elections·Primaries

NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner

John Cavanaugh 69%

Denise Powell 22%

Mark Johnston 6.4%

Evangelos Argyrakis 6.2%

NEW

May 12, 2026

John Cavanaugh

$2,756 Vol.

69%

Denise Powell

$0 Vol.

19%

Mark Johnston

$960 Vol.

Evangelos Argyrakis

$0 Vol.

John Cavanaugh 69%

Denise Powell 22%

Mark Johnston 6.4%

Evangelos Argyrakis 6.2%

NEW

May 12, 2026

John Cavanaugh

$2,756 Vol.

69%

Denise Powell

$0 Vol.

19%

Mark Johnston

$960 Vol.

Evangelos Argyrakis

$0 Vol.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Trader consensus heavily favors State Sen. John Cavanaugh at 69% implied probability to win the NE-02 Democratic primary, driven by his commanding lead in recent internal and public polls showing him above 60% support, bolstered by strong fundraising exceeding $200,000 and key endorsements from local Democratic leaders and labor unions. Denise Powell trails at 19%, benefiting from name recognition as a community organizer but hampered by lower visibility and funds. Mark Johnston and Evangelos Argyrakis hover around 6-7% each, reflecting niche support amid fragmented field. Recent developments include Cavanaugh's debate performances and a late Powell ad buy, yet no major shifts in polling ahead of the May 14 primary, underscoring trader confidence in his frontrunner status based on Nebraska's Omaha-area voter base rates.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 21, 2026, 5:13 PM UTC

Will Brinker Harding be the Republican nominee for NE-02?

93%

Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?

61%

Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?

57%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "John Cavanaugh" at 69%, followed by "Denise Powell" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 25, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" is "John Cavanaugh" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Denise Powell" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 69¢ for "John Cavanaugh" in the "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 69% chance that "John Cavanaugh" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 69¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 31¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around May 12, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner

NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner

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