Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no Category 5 hurricane making US landfall before 2027, with an 84.5% implied probability on "No", rooted in the extreme historical rarity of such events—only four verified instances since 1851 per NOAA records: Labor Day Hurricane (1935), Camille (1969), Andrew (1992), and Michael (2018). The 2024 Atlantic season, one of the most active on record with 18 named storms, ended without a Cat 5 US strike despite Beryl and Milton briefly intensifying to Category 5 offshore before weakening. Current post-season quietude in the Atlantic basin, transitioning to neutral ENSO conditions, further supports low near-term risks. Warmer sea surface temperatures from climate change heighten rapid intensification potential per NHC analyses, but steering patterns and geographic hurdles limit mainland hits; NOAA's 2025 seasonal outlook due spring will provide next key update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no Category 5 hurricane making US landfall before 2027, with an 84.5% implied probability on "No", rooted in the extreme historical rarity of such events—only four verified instances since 1851 per NOAA records: Labor Day Hurricane (1935), Camille (1969), Andrew (1992), and Michael (2018). The 2024 Atlantic season, one of the most active on record with 18 named storms, ended without a Cat 5 US strike despite Beryl and Milton briefly intensifying to Category 5 offshore before weakening. Current post-season quietude in the Atlantic basin, transitioning to neutral ENSO conditions, further supports low near-term risks. Warmer sea surface temperatures from climate change heighten rapid intensification potential per NHC analyses, but steering patterns and geographic hurdles limit mainland hits; NOAA's 2025 seasonal outlook due spring will provide next key update.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no Category 5 hurricane making US landfall before 2027, with an 84.5% implied probability on "No", rooted in the extreme historical rarity of such events—only four verified instances since 1851 per NOAA records: Labor Day Hurricane (1935), Camille (1969), Andrew (1992), and Michael (2018). The 2024 Atlantic season, one of the most active on record with 18 named storms, ended without a Cat 5 US strike despite Beryl and Milton briefly intensifying to Category 5 offshore before weakening. Current post-season quietude in the Atlantic basin, transitioning to neutral ENSO conditions, further supports low near-term risks. Warmer sea surface temperatures from climate change heighten rapid intensification potential per NHC analyses, but steering patterns and geographic hurdles limit mainland hits; NOAA's 2025 seasonal outlook due spring will provide next key update.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no Category 5 hurricane making US landfall before 2027, with an 84.5% implied probability on "No", rooted in the extreme historical rarity of such events—only four verified instances since 1851 per NOAA records: Labor Day Hurricane (1935), Camille (1969), Andrew (1992), and Michael (2018). The 2024 Atlantic season, one of the most active on record with 18 named storms, ended without a Cat 5 US strike despite Beryl and Milton briefly intensifying to Category 5 offshore before weakening. Current post-season quietude in the Atlantic basin, transitioning to neutral ENSO conditions, further supports low near-term risks. Warmer sea surface temperatures from climate change heighten rapid intensification potential per NHC analyses, but steering patterns and geographic hurdles limit mainland hits; NOAA's 2025 seasonal outlook due spring will provide next key update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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