March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)

Economy·Inflation

March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)

Apr 10

≥3.4% 50.6%

3.3% 26.5%

3.2% 11%

3.1% 5.8%

$699,357 Vol.

Apr 10, 2026

≤2.6%

$88,051 Vol.

2.7%

$87,630 Vol.

2.8%

$34,666 Vol.

2.9%

$34,610 Vol.

3.0%

$36,973 Vol.

3.1%

$55,568 Vol.

3.2%

$33,342 Vol.

11%

3.3%

$142,899 Vol.

27%

≥3.4%

$185,619 Vol.

51%

≥3.4% 50.6%

3.3% 26.5%

3.2% 11%

3.1% 5.8%

$699,357 Vol.

Apr 10, 2026

≤2.6%

$88,051 Vol.

2.7%

$87,630 Vol.

2.8%

$34,666 Vol.

2.9%

$34,610 Vol.

3.0%

$36,973 Vol.

3.1%

$55,568 Vol.

3.2%

$33,342 Vol.

11%

3.3%

$142,899 Vol.

27%

≥3.4%

$185,619 Vol.

51%

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Traders on Polymarket are heavily favoring annual US CPI inflation for March landing at ≥3.4% (50.5% implied probability) or exactly 3.3% (26.5%), reflecting economist consensus forecasts near 3.4% YoY—up from February's 3.2%—amid sticky core pressures from shelter costs (up 5.7% YoY) and a rebounding energy sector. Recent developments bolstering higher-bracket odds include hotter-than-expected February PPI (0.3% MoM), resilient consumer spending via upbeat retail sales, and hawkish Fed rhetoric signaling no rush to cut rates, with market-implied Fed funds holding steady near 4.75-5%. Upcoming CPI release on April 10 remains the key catalyst, where beats above 3.4% could reinforce disinflation doubts.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 21, 2026, 1:48 AM UTC

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

95%

Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?

52%

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be at least 2.5%?

19%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "≥3.4%" at 51%, followed by "3.3%" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)" has generated $699.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)" is "≥3.4%" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.3%" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $699.4K traded on “March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets),” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 51¢ for "≥3.4%" in the "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 51% chance that "≥3.4%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 51¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 49¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Apr 10, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)" market has an active community of 170 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)

March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)

Rules

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Comments (170)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

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