Stalled U.S.-brokered trilateral peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, coupled with Russia's launch of a spring offensive along the front lines, have driven trader consensus to price a ceasefire by the end of 2026 at just 28.5% likelihood. Recent developments include Ukraine and U.S. delegations concluding talks in Florida on March 22 with a POW exchange but no breakthrough, followed by Kremlin statements on March 26 expressing hope for resumed discussions amid conditions like Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas—demands Kyiv rejects. Ongoing strikes, reports of potential U.S. aid diversion to the Middle East amid the Iran conflict, and analyses projecting Russian aggression through 2026 underscore entrenched positions and military escalation, tempering prospects for de-escalation despite diplomatic signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$12,306,581 Vol.
$12,306,581 Vol.
$12,306,581 Vol.
$12,306,581 Vol.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Resolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Stalled U.S.-brokered trilateral peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, coupled with Russia's launch of a spring offensive along the front lines, have driven trader consensus to price a ceasefire by the end of 2026 at just 28.5% likelihood. Recent developments include Ukraine and U.S. delegations concluding talks in Florida on March 22 with a POW exchange but no breakthrough, followed by Kremlin statements on March 26 expressing hope for resumed discussions amid conditions like Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas—demands Kyiv rejects. Ongoing strikes, reports of potential U.S. aid diversion to the Middle East amid the Iran conflict, and analyses projecting Russian aggression through 2026 underscore entrenched positions and military escalation, tempering prospects for de-escalation despite diplomatic signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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