Kash Patel out by...?

Politics·Trump

Kash Patel out by...?

$45,621 Vol.

March 31

$34,166 Vol.

June 30

$11,455 Vol.

11%

$45,621 Vol.

March 31

$34,166 Vol.

June 30

$11,455 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Senate confirmation remains the dominant factor shaping trader consensus on Kash Patel's tenure as Trump-nominated FBI Director, with odds reflecting doubts over his longevity if approved. The Senate Judiciary Committee advanced his nomination on a 11-10 party-line vote on February 6, 2025, following a contentious January 30 hearing where Patel defended past statements on the 2021 Capitol riot and FBI reforms against bipartisan skepticism. Several GOP senators, including Susan Collins and Thom Tillis, voiced reservations over his perceived partisanship, risking defections in the full Senate despite the 53-47 Republican majority. A floor vote is expected imminently, potentially by mid-February, while Trump's public endorsements underscore pressure for swift approval; any post-confirmation clashes with Congress or bureau resistance could accelerate an early exit.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 20, 2026, 11:07 PM UTC

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Kash Patel out by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30" at 11%, followed by "March 31" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 11¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Kash Patel out by...?" has generated $45.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Kash Patel out by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Kash Patel out by...?" is "June 30" at 11%, meaning the market assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 31" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Kash Patel out by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Kash Patel out by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $45.6K traded on “Kash Patel out by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Kash Patel out by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 11¢ for "June 30" in the "Kash Patel out by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 11% chance that "June 30" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 11¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 89¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

This market will resolve when the event's official outcome is determined. Check the "Rules" section on this page for the specific resolution criteria and timing.

The "Kash Patel out by...?" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Kash Patel out by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Kash Patel out by...?

Kash Patel out by...?

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