Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District became an open seat when longtime Republican incumbent Kevin Hern launched a U.S. Senate bid in March 2026 following Markwayne Mullin’s move to Secretary of Homeland Security. The Tulsa-area district carries an R+11 partisan voting index and has delivered consistent Republican majorities in recent cycles, including Hern’s 60 percent share in 2024. A crowded Republican primary scheduled for June 16 features multiple candidates including state legislators and local officials, while Democrat John Croisant advanced unopposed after his party’s primary was canceled. Traders assign the Republican nominee an 87 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting the district’s structural advantage and limited recent polling shifts that would alter the expected outcome in November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$11,853 거래량
$11,853 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
87%
Democratic Party
13%
$11,853 거래량
$11,853 거래량
2026.11.03
Republican Party
$6,313 거래량
87%
Democratic Party
$5,540 거래량
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District became an open seat when longtime Republican incumbent Kevin Hern launched a U.S. Senate bid in March 2026 following Markwayne Mullin’s move to Secretary of Homeland Security. The Tulsa-area district carries an R+11 partisan voting index and has delivered consistent Republican majorities in recent cycles, including Hern’s 60 percent share in 2024. A crowded Republican primary scheduled for June 16 features multiple candidates including state legislators and local officials, while Democrat John Croisant advanced unopposed after his party’s primary was canceled. Traders assign the Republican nominee an 87 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting the district’s structural advantage and limited recent polling shifts that would alter the expected outcome in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$11,853종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District became an open seat when longtime Republican incumbent Kevin Hern launched a U.S. Senate bid in March 2026 following Markwayne Mullin’s move to Secretary of Homeland Security. The Tulsa-area district carries an R+11 partisan voting index and has delivered consistent Republican majorities in recent cycles, including Hern’s 60 percent share in 2024. A crowded Republican primary scheduled for June 16 features multiple candidates including state legislators and local officials, while Democrat John Croisant advanced unopposed after his party’s primary was canceled. Traders assign the Republican nominee an 87 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting the district’s structural advantage and limited recent polling shifts that would alter the expected outcome in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$11,853종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District became an open seat when longtime Republican incumbent Kevin Hern launched a U.S. Senate bid in March 2026 following Markwayne Mullin’s move to Secretary of Homeland Security. The Tulsa-area district carries an R+11 partisan voting index and has delivered consistent Republican majorities in recent cycles, including Hern’s 60 percent share in 2024. A crowded Republican primary scheduled for June 16 features multiple candidates including state legislators and local officials, while Democrat John Croisant advanced unopposed after his party’s primary was canceled. Traders assign the Republican nominee an 87 percent implied probability of victory, reflecting the district’s structural advantage and limited recent polling shifts that would alter the expected outcome in November.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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