Missouri's 1st Congressional District, with its D+29 Cook PVI and history of Democratic general election margins exceeding 70 points—including incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell's 76% win in 2024—drives trader consensus to price a Democratic Party victory at 98%. Recent candidate filing closed March 31 without a credible Republican contender emerging, pitting perennial primary loser Andrew Jones Jr. against Paul Berry in the GOP August 4 primary, while forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the seat Solid Democratic. A Supreme Court Voting Rights Act ruling April 29 sparked brief redistricting speculation for this Black-plurality district but left maps unchanged. Realistic challenges include a post-primary Democratic nominee scandal, unprecedented GOP funding surge, or national red wave eroding turnout, though base rates for flipping such seats remain near zero ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$23,403 거래량
$23,403 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
96%
공화당
3%
$23,403 거래량
$23,403 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$13,254 거래량
96%
공화당
$10,149 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 1st Congressional District, with its D+29 Cook PVI and history of Democratic general election margins exceeding 70 points—including incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell's 76% win in 2024—drives trader consensus to price a Democratic Party victory at 98%. Recent candidate filing closed March 31 without a credible Republican contender emerging, pitting perennial primary loser Andrew Jones Jr. against Paul Berry in the GOP August 4 primary, while forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the seat Solid Democratic. A Supreme Court Voting Rights Act ruling April 29 sparked brief redistricting speculation for this Black-plurality district but left maps unchanged. Realistic challenges include a post-primary Democratic nominee scandal, unprecedented GOP funding surge, or national red wave eroding turnout, though base rates for flipping such seats remain near zero ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$23,403종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 1st Congressional District, with its D+29 Cook PVI and history of Democratic general election margins exceeding 70 points—including incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell's 76% win in 2024—drives trader consensus to price a Democratic Party victory at 98%. Recent candidate filing closed March 31 without a credible Republican contender emerging, pitting perennial primary loser Andrew Jones Jr. against Paul Berry in the GOP August 4 primary, while forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the seat Solid Democratic. A Supreme Court Voting Rights Act ruling April 29 sparked brief redistricting speculation for this Black-plurality district but left maps unchanged. Realistic challenges include a post-primary Democratic nominee scandal, unprecedented GOP funding surge, or national red wave eroding turnout, though base rates for flipping such seats remain near zero ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$23,403종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 1st Congressional District, with its D+29 Cook PVI and history of Democratic general election margins exceeding 70 points—including incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell's 76% win in 2024—drives trader consensus to price a Democratic Party victory at 98%. Recent candidate filing closed March 31 without a credible Republican contender emerging, pitting perennial primary loser Andrew Jones Jr. against Paul Berry in the GOP August 4 primary, while forecasters like Cook Political Report rate the seat Solid Democratic. A Supreme Court Voting Rights Act ruling April 29 sparked brief redistricting speculation for this Black-plurality district but left maps unchanged. Realistic challenges include a post-primary Democratic nominee scandal, unprecedented GOP funding surge, or national red wave eroding turnout, though base rates for flipping such seats remain near zero ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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